LONDON (AP) — British Prime Minister Keir Starmer marks a year in office this week, facing significant internal rebellion from his own Labour Party over welfare reform and grappling with a struggling economy and low approval ratings. Starmer's challenges stand in stark contrast to the landslide victory his center-left Labour Party celebrated on July 4, 2024, when they secured 412 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons, bringing an end to 14 years of Conservative governance.
In the past twelve months, Starmer has adeptly navigated a turbulent global landscape, gaining recognition for rallying international support for Ukraine and convincing U.S. President Donald Trump to sign a trade deal that eased tariffs on U.K. goods. However, domestically, his agenda has faltered, as he struggles to convince British voters and even members of his party that his government is effecting the promised change. With inflation persistently high and economic growth stagnating, Starmer's personal approval ratings have dipped close to those of his predecessor, Liz Truss, who had a brief and troubled tenure in 2022.
Political analyst John Curtice from the University of Strathclyde noted that Starmer is experiencing "the worst start for any newly elected prime minister." This week, Starmer is faced with a parliamentary vote concerning welfare spending after modifying his plans to cut disability benefits. Many Labour lawmakers showed resistance to raising the threshold for these payments, which would have mandated proof of a more significant disability and potentially impacted the income of 3.2 million people by 2030, according to estimates from the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
In light of over 120 Labour lawmakers threatening to vote against the bill, the government made concessions, ensuring that no current benefit recipients would face adverse changes. Additionally, Starmer's government promised consultations with disability advocacy groups and increased efforts to assist sick and disabled individuals in finding employment. Some rebels indicated a willingness to support the bill following these concessions, while others remained steadfast in their opposition.
The welfare reform reversal marks the third policy shift in a short span, highlighting Starmer's struggles to maintain a cohesive agenda. Earlier this year, the government abandoned plans to cut winter home heating subsidies for retirees and launched an inquiry into organized child sexual abuse under pressure from both opposition parties and public figures, including Elon Musk. Political science professor Rob Ford from the University of Manchester stated, "It’s a failure of leadership for a prime minister with such a big majority to not be able to get their agenda through." He emphasized the rarity of such setbacks for a prime minister in a strong parliamentary position.
Despite the turmoil, Starmer's government touts various achievements over the first year, including raising the minimum wage, enhancing workers' rights, initiating new social housing projects, and increasing funding for the state healthcare system. However, the government also increased taxes for employers and farmers and has had to tighten benefits, attributing these difficult choices to the legacy of previous Conservative administrations. This somber narrative has done little to boost Starmer's popularity.
Recently, Starmer acknowledged his mistakes during an interview with the Sunday Times, admitting he had focused primarily on international issues while the welfare crisis unfolded at home. "I’d have liked to get to a better position with colleagues sooner than we did,” he confessed.
The landscape of UK politics is increasingly unpredictable. Following the Labour Party's major electoral win in 2024, the opposition Conservative Party found itself at its weakest, with only 121 lawmakers remaining. Yet, changing public sentiment is evident, as some support has moved from traditional parties to Reform U.K., a far-right faction led by Nigel Farage, which tends to lead opinion polls. If this trend continues, it could disrupt the historical two-party dominance in British politics.
Currently, Starmer's most significant advantage is time, as he is not obligated to call elections until 2029. Political analyst Ford reflected that ample opportunity remains for Starmer to reverse his fortunes but warned that the ongoing rebellion within Labour would complicate future governance, stating, "barring some magical unexpected economic boom... there’s going to be a hell of a lot more fights to come."
