As the federal election approaches with just under a week remaining, the latest polls reveal a significant lead for the Liberal Party in Atlantic Canada. According to data from Narrative Research, a substantial 66 percent of east coast Canadians express firm intentions to vote for the Liberals, while 25 percent plan to support the Conservative Party. Only 6 percent of respondents indicate support for the New Democratic Party (NDP), and 6 percent remain undecided.
The findings underscore a noteworthy shift in support, particularly attributed to Mark Carney's leadership. Margaret Brigley, CEO & Partner of Narrative Research, stated that approximately half of the respondents had already participated in advance polling, and the remainder conveyed decisive voting intentions. Carney appears to have rejuvenated the Liberal Party's standing in the region.
The survey, which involved 1,325 Atlantic Canadians and was conducted on April 21 and 22, has a margin of sampling error of ± 2.7 percentage points with a confidence level of 95 out of 100. Results indicate that support for the Liberals is especially pronounced among individuals aged 55 and older, with a greater likelihood of support from women compared to men.
Liberals' Stronghold in Atlantic Canada
This emerging trend is significant as experts and candidates alike recognize Atlantic Canada as a crucial region for garnering votes in the impending election on Monday. Despite comprising only 32 seats across four provinces, the Liberal Party relies heavily on this territory to secure a majority government.
Historically, Atlantic Canada has shown mixed voting patterns for the Liberals. In the 2015 federal election, Justin Trudeau's government notably swept the region, winning every single riding and forming a significant majority. However, in the 2019 election, the Liberal support diminished, with several seats shifting to the Conservatives, and the emergence of winning seats by the Greens and NDP shifted the Liberals into a minority government position.
During the 2021 election, the NDP and Greens lost footholds in the east, with seats going to Liberal candidates. Still, the Conservatives managed to gain more seats, resulting again in a minority government for Trudeau.
Lori Turnbull, a political science professor at Dalhousie University, suggested that while the Conservatives are likely to retain a few of their seats, the prospects for them to win previously contested ridings appear bleak. Carney has made several appearances in the Maritimes throughout the campaign, signaling his commitment to strengthening Liberal support in the region.
As the election nears, the dynamics in Atlantic Canada will be critical in determining the outcome on voting day, reflecting a complex interplay of historical voting patterns and current sentiment among voters.
