Nearly nine months after a surprise Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region, Russia announced that its troops have fully reclaimed the border territory. Ukraine, however, denied this claim, stating that fighting continues in the area. If confirmed, Moscow's purported victory would diminish Kyiv's leverage in U.S.-brokered negotiations aimed at ending the ongoing war, which has lasted over three years. These negotiations often involve exchanging territorial gains for regions occupied by Russia.
The Ukrainian offensive began on August 6, 2024, when Ukrainian forces executed a surprise attack, rapidly overwhelming Russian border guards and conscripts. This unexpected incursion resulted in hundreds of Russian troops being taken prisoner and was seen as a significant blow to the Kremlin, marking the first occupation of Russian territory since World War II. Planning for the operation was conducted in complete secrecy, with Ukrainian troops reportedly informed of their mission only a day beforehand. Russia's focus on battlefields in eastern Ukraine allowed Ukrainian forces to covertly mobilize along the border.
Ukrainian units made swift advancements, capturing approximately 1,300 square kilometers (500 square miles) and around 100 settlements in the Kursk region, which spans 29,900 square kilometers (11,540 square miles). Unlike the static frontlines observed in Donetsk, Ukrainian forces maneuvered freely but did not establish a permanent presence in many areas. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy viewed the incursion as a strategy to divert Russian forces from the eastern front, potentially creating an opportunity for peace talks.
In the initial phases of the incursion, Russia struggled to deploy sufficient ground forces, relying heavily on aerial bombardments and reinforcements from various regions. However, these reinforcements included troops with little experience, hampering coordination and contributing to further Ukrainian gains. Despite expectations, Russia did not substantially reinforce the Kursk region but focused on halting deeper Ukrainian incursions instead.
During the fall, North Korea's involvement became a focus of international concern, as reports surfaced that the country had deployed around 10,000 to 12,000 troops to support Russian efforts in Kursk. General Valery Gerasimov, head of Russia's General Staff, later confirmed that North Korean soldiers participated in combat missions alongside Russian forces, praising their combat performance. Initial reports indicated significant casualties among North Korean troops, reflecting their lack of experience and unfamiliarity with the battlefield.
By early 2025, Russia intensified efforts to reclaim territory in Kursk, recovering about two-thirds of the area previously captured by Ukrainian forces. The renewed pressure on Ukrainian troops escalated in March when Russian forces aimed to create a connection between Sudzha, the main hub of Ukrainian resistance, and the Sumy region across the border. Heavy artillery bombardments made it increasingly difficult for Ukraine to maintain supply lines, leading to a situation where the military presence became unsustainable.
In a surprising maneuver, a contingent of 600 Russian troops executed a stealth operation through a natural gas pipeline to strike Ukrainian positions from behind. This occurred amidst a critical shift in U.S. support, which saw a halt in weapon supplies and intelligence-sharing with Ukraine following a contentious meeting between Zelenskyy and President Donald Trump.
Ukraine's military leadership has dismissed Russia's claims of total control over the Kursk region. If validated, Russia's success would significantly impact Ukraine's negotiating stance, reducing their ability to bargain over territory lost earlier in the conflict. Russia currently occupies about one-fifth of Ukraine, and a Ukrainian defeat in Kursk raises the stakes for further Russian advances into the Sumy region. Russian President Vladimir Putin has indicated a desire to establish a security zone along the border, increasing concerns of potential incursions into Ukrainian territory.
