OTTAWA — Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has consistently accused the Liberal government of exacerbating Canada's economic dependence on the United States. However, political scientists argue that the situation is more intricate, highlighting a longer-term trend of continental integration that has been in process for nearly 40 years.
During his campaign, Poilievre referred to a “lost Liberal decade” characterized by economic stagnation. He blamed former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for hindering resource development, which resulted in Canadian energy being sold at lower prices to the U.S. and led to a significant loss of investment opportunities for Canadian companies.
Blayne Haggart, a political science professor at Brock University in St. Catharines, Ontario, stated that blaming Trudeau for Canada’s economic reliance on the U.S. is “kind of silly.” He emphasized that the economic interdependence has been a “bipartisan project” since the late 1980s, starting with Progressive Conservative Prime Minister Brian Mulroney’s push for a free-trade agreement to ensure secure access to U.S. markets.
This agreement, which laid the groundwork for the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, soon expanded to include Mexico and has influenced trade relations between Canada, the U.S., and Mexico through various Liberal and Conservative administrations up to the present day.
Greg Anderson, a political science professor at the University of Alberta, acknowledged that Poilievre had some valid points regarding the Liberal government's mixed record on stimulating economic growth when compared to the United States. He noted that for a period it seemed that Canada struggled to progress on significant infrastructure projects.
The impact of U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods during former President Donald Trump’s administration and discussions around potential annexation have reignited discussions about investing in a robust Canadian economy and enhancing the flow of resources from east to west within Canada.
Both the Conservative and Liberal parties have made promises during their campaigns to create infrastructure that facilitates trade and effectively transports resources across the nation and beyond. Anderson pointed out a notable shift in public sentiment, indicating a growing interest among Canadians in developing such infrastructure.
Haggart added that the Trudeau government might share some responsibility for not recognizing the potential economic risks posed by Trump's rise to power in 2016, which brought trade pressures that could affect Canada’s dependency on the U.S. He noted a lack of vocal advocacy from Conservatives at the time for diversifying away from U.S. market dependence, mentioning that, historically, both parties appeared to be unresponsive to the changing geopolitical landscape.
Diversifying trade and reducing reliance on the U.S. market has proven challenging, according to Anderson. The demand for commodities such as lumber, agricultural products, potash, energy, and automobiles remains strong in the U.S. marketplace, creating a “gravity” that drives Canadian goods south. Additionally, he highlighted consistent struggles to eliminate interprovincial trade barriers, which have been a long-standing issue in Canada.
Haggart expressed concerns that reinforcing Canada’s economy in the face of an increasingly unpredictable U.S. ally could potentially come with substantial financial burdens. While Haggart noted a clear appetite among Canadians for ambitious projects, he raised the question of what significant “hard choices” may lie ahead for the country as it seeks to navigate this complex relationship with the United States.
