Canada's trade tensions with the United States, particularly under the leadership of Donald Trump, are entering a new and uncertain phase. However, recent public sentiment indicates that a significant majority of Canadians support Prime Minister Mark Carney's decision to withdraw from ongoing negotiations instead of accepting last-minute U.S. terms. A comprehensive survey conducted by Abacus Data reveals that 71 percent of Canadians believe suspending talks was the correct choice, even when reminded of the potential repercussions, such as higher tariffs and increased economic uncertainty. In contrast, only 17 percent of respondents expressed the opinion that the Canadian government should have accepted the U.S. offer, while 12 percent remained undecided.
The surge in public support reflects an endorsement of Prime Minister Carney's choice to pull Canadian negotiators from Washington on August 21, after the introduction of what he termed "unfair" and "uneconomic" changes that created uncertainty regarding the feasibility of any agreement. The situation escalated the following day when a 50 percent tariff was imposed on approximately $28 billion worth of Canadian goods.
In retaliation, Canada announced its own tariffs, ranging from 15 to 50 percent on $27.6 billion in U.S. imports, scheduled to take effect on September 8. Additionally, the government initiated a support package amounting to $7.5 billion aimed at assisting affected workers and businesses.
Widespread Support for Carney's Decision
The backing for the decision to suspend negotiations transcends both regional and partisan lines. The Abacus data shows that support exceeds 60 percent in every Canadian region, with Alberta reporting a significant 61 percent approval, while Quebec expressed the highest support at 79 percent. Notably, even among Conservative voters from the previous election, 54 percent indicated that walking away was the appropriate course of action, despite criticism directed at Carney's broader trade strategy from within their party.
Generational perspectives showcase more pronounced differences: support for Carney’s stance increases with age, starting at 56 percent among individuals aged 18 to 29 and climbing to 85 percent among Canadians aged 60 and older. Younger Canadians are not outright opposed to the decision, but show more ambivalence, with over 25 percent suggesting the government should have accepted the U.S. deal.
Public Approval of the Government's Negotiation Strategy
Beyond the nuanced support for suspending negotiations, 60 percent of Canadians approve of the overall handling of the trade negotiations by Carney and his government, while only 18 percent disapprove. Approval ratings are highest in Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia, but notably lower in Alberta, where only 48 percent approved and 24 percent disapproved.
The partisan divide becomes more apparent in terms of approval ratings: while supporters of the Liberal, Bloc Québécois, and NDP overwhelmingly endorse the government's approach, Conservative voters show a split with 36 percent approving and 38 percent disapproving.
Expectations for the Future of Trade Relations
Despite the strong backing for Carney's approach, Canadians seem to have a less optimistic outlook regarding the future of trade relations. Only 15 percent anticipate a swift resolution that would eliminate most tariffs. The prevailing expectation among 32 percent of respondents is that the dispute will persist before a potential agreement is achieved. Furthermore, a significant 40 percent fear further deterioration in relations, with 22 percent believing there will be escalated tariffs and 18 percent anticipating a permanent fallout.
This prevailing sense of pessimism extends to the future of the broader North American trade framework, particularly in light of the U.S. decision not to extend CUSMA during its scheduled review earlier in the summer. Only 17 percent of Canadians feel optimistic that the agreement will eventually be renewed or updated in a manner that sustains a close trading relationship.
