OTTAWA – Canada must further reduce the number of temporary residents in the country and improve data tracking of their exit, according to the head of an expert immigration panel. Parisa Mahboubi, who chairs the C.D. Howe Institute's immigration targets council, emphasized the significance of these measures during a submission preparation for the government's annual immigration consultation period.

This report arrives two years after Canada began efforts to limit the influx of temporary residents, including foreign students and workers. The rise in immigration has led to various challenges, notably housing shortages and overburdened social services. Prime Minister Mark Carney, who took office in 2025, highlighted that high immigration levels were a consequence of losing control over international student and temporary worker intake.

Mahboubi criticized the government's lack of comprehensive tracking, stating, "Canada is flying in the dark" when it comes to monitoring temporary residents post-arrival. She pointed out the absence of clear data regarding the number of visas, renewals, and the estimated number of non-permanent residents exiting the country after their visas expire.

According to immigration data from June 30, Canada had 632,000 study permit holders and 1.5 million temporary work permit holders. By June 2024, these numbers increased to over one million students and nearly 1.2 million temporary workers. However, the influx of new arrivals has significantly decreased. Between January and June this year, only 22,410 new foreign students arrived compared to 124,930 during the same period in 2024. Similarly, new temporary worker arrivals fell from 244,985 in early 2024 to 98,130 this year.

The government's current objective is to reduce the number of temporary residents to below five percent of the total population by the end of 2027, having peaked at over seven percent in October 2024. Statistics Canada estimates around 2.5 million non-permanent residents as of last spring, approximately 6.2 percent of the population. Mahboubi suggested that five percent should be seen as a ceiling rather than a goal, advocating for a target of three to four percent, which aligns with historical averages.

Conservative immigration critic Michelle Rempel Garner expressed skepticism regarding Carney's assertion that the immigration system is under control, emphasizing that immigration levels should reflect Canada's capacity to provide jobs, housing, and healthcare. She highlighted existing job crises and high unemployment rates across the country, stating, "It’s not fair to somebody who came to Canada to build a better life. It’s not fair to somebody’s kids that are out of jobs today."

The government has also adjusted targets for new permanent residents. Originally, the former Liberal government aimed to admit 500,000 new permanent residents in both 2025 and 2026, but these goals were revised to 395,000 and 380,000, respectively. Mahboubi noted that the 2026 permanent residency target does not represent the full picture, as the government has introduced one-time programs to grant residency status to up to around 148,000 individuals from 2026 to 2027, which includes about 115,000 protected persons and 33,000 skilled workers.

Rempel Garner further criticized instances where non-citizens received lighter sentences to evade immigration consequences, positing that this creates a "two-tiered justice system." She has brought forth numerous cases to the House of Commons where this practice has occurred, indicating that it's an ongoing issue.

Generally, non-citizens convicted of crimes that result in a prison sentence of six months or more are deemed inadmissible to Canada. A six-year review from the University of Saskatchewan College of Law showed that in 40 cases analyzed, sentences were reduced to under six months influenced by immigration consequences. The study indicated that 19 of those cases had judges intentionally considering immigration outcomes when reducing sentences.

This report underscores the complexities surrounding Canada's immigration system and the urgent need for improved data and control over temporary residents.