ALPHARETTA, Ga. (AP) — A special state senate election in a strongly conservative district in Georgia has attracted significant attention after Democrat Debra Shigley captured 40% of the votes in the initial round held in August. Voters are set to decide on Tuesday between Shigley and Republican Jason Dickerson, who finished second in that election. Neither candidate achieved a majority, necessitating a runoff.
The race is pivotal for Democrats who are eager to flip seats amid growing dissatisfaction with the policies of Republican former President Donald Trump. However, political analysts, including Georgia Republican strategist Brian Robinson, are skeptical about Shigley's chances against a single Republican opponent, especially since Democrats typically perform better in low-turnout elections such as the August special election. The political climate is influenced by historical patterns, particularly when the president's party is not in power.
On Saturday, Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin made a visit to Georgia to campaign alongside Shigley in Alpharetta, which is located 26 miles (42 kilometers) north of Atlanta. The Senate District 21 seat has become vacant following Trump's recruitment of former Republican state Sen. Brandon Beach to serve as treasurer. Beach had overwhelmingly won his seat with over 70% of the vote during the 2024 elections.
In the upcoming runoff, Republican leaders are rallying behind Dickerson, an investment company president who garnered 17.4% of the vote in the previous election. He is financing a traditional conservative campaign that emphasizes lower taxes and stricter immigration policies.
In contrast, Shigley is a lawyer and small business owner residing on a farm with her husband and five children. She aims to address the rising cost of living for working families and previously ran against Republican House Speaker Pro Tem Jan Jones in 2024, a contest she lost.
Data compiled by The Downballot shows that since Trump's presidency began, Democrats have generally outperformed expectations in special elections, often surpassing former Vice President Kamala Harris's 2024 presidential election results by an average of 15.1 percentage points. While Republicans have largely maintained their seats, Democrats succeeded in flipping key legislative positions in Pennsylvania and Iowa earlier in the year.
Shigley and her supporters argue that the increased voter turnout in August was a response to what they describe as the "chaos" created by Trump's policies. They anticipate similar enthusiasm in the upcoming runoff. Local and state Democrats believe that regardless of Tuesday's outcome, the influx of volunteers signals positive prospects for grassroots organizing as they prepare for consequential races in 2026, including those for governor and U.S. Senate.
Political science professor Charles Bullock III from the University of Georgia has indicated that it remains uncertain whether races like Shigley’s will indicate broader Democratic victories in 2026. The outcome will rely on whether Democrats manage to flip more seats nationwide and how the electorate responds to Trump in the upcoming year.
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Kramon is a corps member for The Associated Press/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative.
