HONG KONG (AP) - China's goal to compete with Boeing and Airbus through its domestically produced passenger jet, the C919, is facing significant challenges, with this year's delivery targets likely to be unmet. The C919, a single-aisle aircraft designed to rival Boeing's 737 and Airbus' A320, is developed by the state-owned manufacturer COMAC. Although touted as a symbol of China's technological progress and self-reliance, the aircraft's reliance on Western components complicates its ambitions.
Trade tensions with the United States pose a substantial threat to COMAC's ability to secure vital parts for the C919, which has been bolstered by extensive Chinese government subsidies. Max J. Zenglein, an economist at The Conference Board think tank, explained that COMAC's supply chains are at risk due to the unpredictable policy landscape and potential export restrictions stemming from U.S.-China disputes.
According to Bank of America analysts, the C919 is reliant on 48 major suppliers in the U.S., including General Electric (GE), Honeywell, and Collins, as well as 26 from Europe and 14 from China. Former President Trump had previously threatened to impose new export controls on essential software to China following stricter export constraints on rare earth materials imposed by Beijing. Zenglein noted that these existing "choke points" could impact negotiations and delivery timelines for the C919 as critical dependencies evolve into political leverage.
The C919 made its maiden commercial flight in 2023 and is meant to cater to China's substantial demand for new aircraft over the next several decades. The Chinese government has ambitions for the jet to expand beyond domestic borders, targeting regions such as Southeast Asia, Africa, and Europe for future sales. However, in 2023, COMAC delivered only 13 C919s to local airlines and seven as of October 2024, falling short of the ambitious goal of 30 jets by 2025.
The only airlines operating the C919 to date are China's major state-owned carriers: Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern, which collectively fly around 20 C919s. Experts like Dan Taylor from aviation consultancy IBA have pointed out that U.S.-China tensions have directly affected the schedules for the aircraft's deliveries. For instance, output was impeded when the U.S. suspended export licenses for the C919's LEAP-1C engines around May, a suspension that resumed in July. The dependence on U.S.-controlled technology for these engines complicates the situation, exposing the program to political fluctuations outside of COMAC's influence.
Aside from geopolitical issues, operational factors also contribute to the slower-than-expected production of the C919. Zenglein highlights that the program has prioritized quality and safety, which has influenced the ramp-up speed. Although there is a goal to reduce dependence on foreign components rapidly, many analysts believe this will be a daunting challenge. China's homegrown engine alternative, the CJ-1000A, is still undergoing testing under the state-owned Aero Engine Corporation of China (AECC).
International interest in the C919 has been expressed by several airlines outside China, including AirAsia. However, the lack of international certification remains a significant barrier to the aircraft's operations beyond Chinese airspace. Achieving certifications from American and European aviation authorities could take years, further delaying entry into international markets.
Richard Aboulafia from AeroDynamic Advisory indicates that the success of the C919 hinges on three critical factors: economic viability, a prompt global support network, and certification from safety organizations. Each element is vital, and lacking any one of them could undermine the program's viability.
Airbus estimates that China will need approximately 9,570 new passenger aircraft between 2025 and 2044, with over 80% of these projected to be single-aisle jets like the C919. Meanwhile, Airbus is increasing its competitive presence in China by expanding its manufacturing capabilities, with a new assembly line set to commence operations in 2026, enabling more A320 single-aisle jet production — a model that closely resembles the C919.
Analysts predict it may take several years for COMAC to break the long-standing duopoly held by Boeing and Airbus in the global aircraft market. While COMAC is likely to grow its presence domestically within China, establishing a foothold in regional markets may also be possible. However, the immediate absence of international certification will impede significant entry into Western markets, and ongoing export control volatility is likely to hinder the jet’s broader expansion plans.
