On Tuesday, New Jersey voters will engage in a competitive race for governor, a contest that will likely be scrutinized for its implications on national politics, regardless of its outcome. The state, which is home to numerous legislative races, is also featuring an open mayoral seat in Jersey City, where voters will select a successor to outgoing Mayor Steven Fulop. Fulop previously lost the Democratic nomination to run for governor in June.

Democrat Mikie Sherrill, a four-term U.S. Representative and former Navy helicopter pilot, is contesting against Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a former state Assemblyman who narrowly lost to Democratic Governor Phil Murphy in 2021. Ciattarelli has received a significant endorsement from former President Donald Trump, who actively campaigned for him during a recent telephone town hall. Both candidates have demonstrated robust fundraising capabilities, each raising nearly $20 million for their campaigns.

The New Jersey gubernatorial election is one of only two such elections taking place in November and tends to garner national attention. Historical trends reveal that New Jersey voters have typically elected governors from the opposite party of the sitting President from 1989 to 2017. This pattern was disrupted in 2021 when Phil Murphy, a Democrat, won reelection while Joe Biden occupied the White House. However, it is noteworthy that no party has held the governorship in New Jersey for more than three consecutive terms since the 1960s.

The race for Jersey City mayor features seven candidates, with prominent names including former Governor Jim McGreevey, Hudson County Commissioner Bill O'Dea, and Jersey City Councilman James Solomon. McGreevey, who resigned as governor in 2004 due to a scandal, adds intrigue to the mayoral race. If no candidate secures a majority of the vote, a runoff election will occur on December 2.

In addition to the gubernatorial and mayoral races, all 80 seats in the New Jersey General Assembly are up for election, with Democrats currently holding a 52-28 majority in the chamber. The landscape of New Jersey elections, particularly in presidential races, has consistently favored the Democratic Party—Republicans have not won a presidential contest here since 1988. However, the recent political climate has shown signs of shifting. For example, in the 2024 presidential election, Vice President Kamala Harris garnered only 52% of the vote, a decline from the 57% President Biden achieved in 2020. Trump notably flipped five counties that had voted for Biden, including Atlantic, Cumberland, Gloucester, Morris, and Passaic, the latter being particularly significant as Biden had a 17-point advantage there in 2020.

The Associated Press (AP) will monitor the race closely without making projections, declaring a winner only when it is clear that the trailing candidates cannot catch up. In the rare case that a recount is needed in New Jersey, candidates can request one at their own expense, but the state does not have automatic recounts. The AP may declare a winner if it determines that the lead is insurmountable for the trailing candidates.

The polls in New Jersey close at 8 p.m. ET, and registered voters will have the opportunity to participate in both the statewide gubernatorial election and local races for their General Assembly districts or municipalities. As of October 1, New Jersey had approximately 6.6 million registered voters, with about 38% of those identifying as Democrats, 25% as Republicans, and 35% as unaffiliated. In the 2021 general election, voter turnout was about 40%, with approximately 30% of the votes cast early or via absentee ballots. As of Monday, nearly 735,000 early and absentee ballots had already been submitted, predominantly from Democrats at 56%, compared to 27% from Republicans and 17% from unaffiliated voters.

The counting of votes typically takes a few hours after polls close, and results often begin to roll in shortly after 8 p.m. ET. For instance, in the 2024 election, the first results were reported at 8:01 p.m. ET, with counting continuing until early the following morning.

As voters head to the polls on Tuesday, anticipation builds around the implications of the gubernatorial race and other local elections for the national political landscape in the coming years.