HALVALA, Finland (AP) – Finnish President Alexander Stubb has expressed skepticism regarding the likelihood of a ceasefire in Ukraine before spring 2026, urging European allies to sustain their support amidst a corruption scandal plaguing Kyiv. In an exclusive interview, Stubb highlighted the necessity of 'sisu', a Finnish term signifying endurance and resilience, to navigate the challenging winter months as Russia escalates its hybrid attacks and information warfare throughout Europe.
Stubb, who has positioned himself as a key European intermediary between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is acutely aware of the stakes involved, particularly due to Finland's 1,340-kilometer (830-mile) border with Russia. Having experienced significant territorial losses to Moscow in the 1940s, Finland adopted a policy of military neutrality, a stance that only shifted in response to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, subsequently joining NATO.
In his role, Stubb leverages his personal rapport with Trump, citing their golf outings and regular conversations. He believes this connection enables him to effectively convey Finland's experiences and insights regarding the conflict, stating that even having one of ten ideas accepted by Trump is a positive outcome. During the interview conducted at a military base near Helsinki, Stubb observed local volunteers engaging in defense training exercises while adorned in a jacket featuring the word 'sisu'.
Addressing the corruption allegations facing Zelenskyy, Stubb warned that such issues only serve to empower Russia. He emphasized the need for European leaders to reinforce financial and military backing for Ukraine, particularly as Russian forces make incremental gains on the battlefield. Stubb's outlook regarding a ceasefire is not optimistic, as he foresees no progress towards peace negotiations during the current year. He highlighted the importance of initiating dialogue by March 2026.
According to Stubb, three critical questions must be addressed during the negotiation process: security guarantees for Ukraine, the reconstruction of its economy, and resolution of territorial disputes. He asserted that pressure must be maximized on Russia and President Vladimir Putin to alter his strategic priorities, which have remained consistent since the onset of the war nearly four years ago.
To facilitate peace, Stubb proposed utilizing the hundreds of billions of dollars in frozen Russian assets held in Europe as collateral to support Ukraine along with increasing military pressure on Moscow. He commended Trump for previously sanctioning major Russian energy companies, noting that while effective, these measures must be escalated to adequately empower Ukraine’s defense capabilities, particularly regarding its ability to engage Russia directly.
Recently, Trump denied a Ukrainian request for long-range Tomahawk missiles that would allow strikes deeper within Russian territory. However, negotiations between Ukraine and the U.S. for enhanced military support continue, as indicated by Stubb during the interview. Illustrating the complexity of U.S.-Russia diplomatic relations, he noted Trump's erratic approach toward both Putin and Zelenskyy, advocating for patience in navigating the evolving political landscape.
Stubb’s unique perspective stems from his previous studies in the U.S. on a golf scholarship, where he developed a rapport with Trump. He described golf as an effective means of establishing a connection. He suggested European leaders like himself could play a pivotal role in acting as intermediaries between Trump and Zelenskyy, facilitating better communication.
During the ongoing conflict, Europe has faced numerous threats, including drone incursions and various forms of hybrid warfare initiated by Russia. Stubb articulated that the definition of warfare has become increasingly ambiguous, emphasizing Russia's intent to destabilize Europe through fear and chaos. He concluded that coping with these threats requires a Finnish mindset—remaining composed, resilient, and embracing 'sisu' in the face of adversity.
