LONDON (AP) — Russian officials have expressed no intention of halting their nearly four-year-long invasion of Ukraine, believing they can "outsmart" the United States in ongoing negotiations for a resolution, according to Kaupo Rosin, the head of Estonia's foreign intelligence service. Rosin revealed that Moscow is primarily focused on buying time in talks with Washington and that there is no genuine willingness to engage in meaningful cooperation with the U.S.
In an online briefing ahead of Estonia's annual security report, Rosin mentioned that the country's intelligence findings were derived from "Russian internal discussions," although he did not disclose the specific methods of information gathering. The Estonian report indicated that while an attack on NATO by Russia seems unlikely for this year or the next, Moscow continues to build up its military forces, posing a persistent threat.
Despite public assertions from Russian officials that they seek a negotiated settlement, their demands remain non-negotiable, reflecting a lack of compromise. Recent U.S.-brokered discussions between Russian and Ukrainian envoys have been characterized as constructive and positive, yet there has been no substantial progress on critical issues, according to officials from both countries.
Rosin further asserted that Russian President Vladimir Putin still holds the belief that a military victory in Ukraine is achievable, hinting at a significant disconnect between the reality on the ground and the optimistic reports reaching the Russian leadership. A White House official pointed to recent developments as evidence of progress in the negotiations, noting that more than 300 prisoners have been agreed to be released under a recent cooperation agreement from talks held in Abu Dhabi.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently mentioned that a deadline was set by Washington for reaching a resolution by June, a timeline that has coincided with various previous deadlines set by U.S. President Donald Trump, which have thus far gone unmet. Fiona Hill, a recognized Russia expert who served during Trump's first term, conveyed skepticism regarding the narrative being spun by Trump and his officials, which presents the president as a peacemaker. She emphasized that both leaders have a vested interest in portraying their versions of events, with Putin seeking to frame himself as the victor.
The motivations behind the U.S. administration's belief that Putin desires peace remain unclear, as Rosin questioned the foundation of this perception among U.S. officials. Hill raised concerns about the type of intelligence being relayed to Trump, indicating that he heavily relies on select negotiators like special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who may not fully comprehend the complexities of the situation due to potential miscommunication.
According to Rosin, the information provided to Putin may be overly optimistic, as he is consumed by the vision of controlling Ukraine, deeming this objective more critical than economic considerations. This fixation might only waver if catastrophic developments threaten his grip on power, suggesting that hostilities will persist for the foreseeable future.
While some Russian officials might be aware of the unfavorable realities on the battlefield, Rosin noted that those at lower levels possess a clearer perception of the dire situation compared to their higher-ranking counterparts. Reports reaching Putin's desk are likely to reflect a skewed, more favorable view of progress, aligning with his preference for success.
Hill concluded that both Trump and Putin are likely surrounded by advisers who cater to their desires for affirmation, thus perpetuating a cycle of misinformation and unrealistic expectations regarding the war's outcomes.
