HONG KONG (AP) – In April, China's exports rose by 14.1% year-on-year, as reported by the government, showcasing resilience amidst challenges such as the ongoing war in Iran and the effects of increased U.S. tariffs. This growth exceeded analysts' expectations and represented a substantial improvement from March's mere 2.5% year-on-year increase. Notably, exports to the United States surged by 11.3%, recovering from a significant decline of 26.5% in March.
Imports also reflected robust growth, climbing 25.3%, although this was a slight slowdown from the 27.8% growth recorded in March. The upcoming summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing is anticipated to address a variety of contentious issues overshadowed by the diplomatic efforts to conclude the war in Iran.
Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at Dutch bank ING, expressed optimism about external demand driving China's economic growth this year, particularly due to exports in sectors such as semiconductors and automobiles. In March, Chinese officials announced a more modest economic growth target of 4.5% to 5% for the year, a reduction from last year’s 5% target and marking the lowest goal since 1991. This export growth is expected to play a pivotal role in rejuvenating the broader economy, especially with increasing shipments to Europe, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa over recent months.
Trade between China and the U.S. has faced considerable strain since the Trump administration implemented increased tariffs and stringent technology transfer controls. Nevertheless, signs indicate an improvement in trade relations for the current year, driven by the statistical effects of previous sharp declines. Analysts suggest that while major breakthroughs on export controls are unlikely at the Trump-Xi summit, there may be incremental steps taken to alleviate trade tensions.
HSBC economists noted that the upcoming meeting could provide opportunities for troubleshooting ongoing trade friction. Leah Fahy, a senior economist at Capital Economics, highlighted that despite the higher tariffs, China’s exports have continued to thrive, suggesting that Beijing remains steadfast in withstanding U.S. pressure.
Furthermore, the war in Iran has led to increased oil and fuel prices, contributing to rising manufacturing and logistics costs for Chinese factories, according to Wei Li, head of multi-asset investments at BNP Paribas Securities (China). The potential impact of global inflation may also affect consumer purchasing power in overseas markets for China.
However, China’s economy has shown resilience relative to other nations, aided by its substantial oil reserves and diversified energy sources. ING’s Song projected that while China’s trade surplus reached a historic $1.2 trillion in the previous year, it may narrow throughout this year. Though imports have shown stronger performance in 2026, China continues to recover from a prolonged property slump that has hindered consumption and investment.
