WARSAW, Poland (AP) — In a closely contested presidential runoff election held over the weekend, conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki has emerged victorious in Poland, securing 50.89% of the vote against liberal rival Rafal Trzaskowski, who garnered 49.11%. The final vote tally was confirmed on Monday, reflecting the intense competition and deep political divisions that currently exist within the nation.
The election's narrow margins have kept the country in suspense since the initial round two weeks prior, highlighting the stark ideological rifts particularly along NATO's eastern flank. An early exit poll had indicated a potential victory for Trzaskowski, but as the night progressed, updated polling results shifted, ultimately leading to Nawrocki's success.
This electoral outcome signals a likely move towards a more nationalist direction for Poland under Nawrocki's leadership. His campaign received notable backing from U.S. President Donald Trump, further emphasizing the strategic relationship between Poland and the U.S.
While the Polish political system primarily allocates day-to-day authority to the prime minister, who is elected by parliament, the presidency still carries significant weight, particularly in shaping foreign policy and exercising legislative veto powers. Nawrocki will take over from outgoing President Andrzej Duda, a conservative leader whose second and final term concludes on August 6.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who took office at the end of 2023, faces increasing challenges amidst a coalition government characterized by diverse ideological stances. Tusk's administration has struggled to meet various electoral promises, notably concerning the relaxation of restrictive abortion laws, partly due to Duda's veto power. The election of Nawrocki suggests that Tusk may find it even more difficult to achieve these goals, particularly as he sought to reverse judicial reforms deemed undemocratic by the European Union.
Nawrocki, aged 42 and a relative newcomer in the political arena, previously led the Institute of National Remembrance, an organization that promotes Polish historical narratives. His political profile is further distinguished by his prior career as a boxer, providing him with a unique public persona. He was chosen by the Law and Justice party as a fresh face to distance their platform from past scandals that plagued the party during its eight years in power, from 2015 to 2023. Observers noted that he reflected a new approach in light of previous controversies associated with the Law and Justice party.
Nawrocki's supporters describe him as a champion of traditional, patriotic values, particularly appealing to those opposing progressive trends such as LGBTQ+ visibility. His election campaign resonated with voters eager for a return to conservative norms, offering an alternative to the more liberal trends under Tusk’s coalition.
Trump's influence on Nawrocki's campaign was evident, especially during a meeting of the conservative group CPAC held in Poland shortly before the election. U.S. officials, including Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, expressed strong support for Nawrocki, suggesting that his presidency could lead to enhanced military collaboration between the U.S. and Poland, where approximately 10,000 American troops are currently stationed.
Nawrocki's supporters frequently invoke the notion of restoring "normality" in Poland, akin to the direction they believe Trump has taken in the United States. U.S. flags were a common sight at his rallies, emphasizing his alignment with Trump’s administration and aspirations for solidifying positive relations with the U.S. government.
