HONG KONG (AP) - A recent survey conducted by the American Chamber of Commerce in China reveals that U.S. businesses are increasingly worried about China's slowing economy, rather than trade tensions between the two nations. The survey, which included responses from 368 companies, indicated that 64% of the participants found China's economic slowdown to be their primary concern, while 58% pointed to U.S.-China trade tensions as a significant challenge.
This shift in focus may be attributed to the fact that many U.S. companies have positioned themselves in China's expansive market, boasting approximately 1.4 billion consumers, with minimal reliance on exports back to the United States. As per economists' predictions, China’s economy is expected to experience further deceleration in 2026, building upon a growth rate that had been around 5% annually in the year 2025. The growth in exports outpaced imports last year, leading to a substantial trade surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion.
The sentiment among American businesses appears to be slightly optimistic compared to last year. More than half of the survey respondents reported making a profit in 2025, an increase from less than half the previous year. However, the journey has not been smooth for U.S. businesses in China, particularly after Donald Trump took office again almost a year ago. A trade truce that was negotiated between Washington and Beijing has mitigated some of the uncertainty surrounding trade relations, following the imposition of tariffs as high as 145% on imports from China during Trump’s administration.
Amidst this backdrop, Trump's anticipated visit to Beijing in April, along with a potential visit to the U.S. by Chinese leader Xi Jinping later this year, brings a sense of cautious optimism. However, overall foreign investment in China has taken a downward turn. Recent government data indicates that foreign direct investment was recorded at 693 billion yuan (approximately $99 billion) in the first 11 months of 2025, reflecting a 7.5% decline from the previous year.
Michael Hart, the president of AmCham China, shared insights at a media briefing, expressing that American companies are adapting to the existing political realities while remaining focused on business opportunities. Hart emphasized that the Chinese government seems to be genuinely interested in attracting foreign investment, particularly from American firms.
The survey findings revealed a growing sense of optimism among respondents regarding market expansion in China over the next two years, with 48% expressing confidence in their growth prospects, a noticeable increase from 37% a year earlier. This positive outlook aligns with discussions at a high-level annual economic work conference held in Beijing in December, where Chinese leaders recognized the necessity of reforming and enhancing systems for promoting foreign investment.
Conducted between October 22 and November 20 of the previous year, the AmCham survey coincided with a meeting between President Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea, which resulted in their agreement to extend the trade truce. Such developments suggest that while U.S. businesses are navigating challenges in China, they are also finding new opportunities in the world's second-largest economy.
