MOGADISHU, Somalia (AP) – Recent U.S.-backed airstrikes and expanded ground operations have shifted the momentum in Somalia's long-standing war against the al-Qaida-linked militant group, al-Shabab, according to government officials. The Somali government is highlighting its successes in reclaiming territories held by al-Shabab and targeting the group's leadership and bomb-making networks.
This shift comes at a crucial moment as African Union peacekeeping forces gradually decrease their presence in Somalia and the Somali government takes on more responsibility for its own security. Al-Shabab has been a dominant insurgent force in the country for nearly two decades.
Background of the Conflict
Al-Shabab emerged in the mid-2000s as the military wing of the now-banned Islamic Courts Union. Over the years, it aligned itself with al-Qaida and at its height, controlled large swathes of southern and central Somalia, including parts of the capital, Mogadishu. Although African Union troops pushed al-Shabab out of Mogadishu in 2011, the group adapted its tactics, reverting to guerrilla warfare, suicide bombings, and targeted assassinations. It continues to finance its operations through taxation and extortion, as reported by U.N. monitors.
The United States has conducted airstrikes in Somalia for over a decade. After President Donald Trump ordered most U.S. troops withdrawn in 2020, President Joe Biden approved the redeployment of U.S. forces to Somalia in 2022, restoring a more persistent advisory and counterterrorism presence.
Territorial Gains Against Al-Shabab
Somali authorities report that government troops have regained control over regions including Lower Shabelle, Hiiraan, Middle Shabelle, and parts of Jubbaland that had been under al-Shabab's influence for years. Omar Ali Abdi, the state minister for defense, shared that several locations in Lower Shabelle, including Jilib Marka, Gendershe, and Dhanaane, are now under military control. The minister also noted significant gains in the Hiiraan region, with operations reported near Masjid Ali Gaduud in Middle Shabelle and enemy casualties in joint operations with U.S.-trained Danab special forces.
Despite these claims, al-Shabab has not acknowledged the reported losses, and access to many contested areas remains limited, complicating independent verification of the situation.
Role of U.S. Forces
The U.S. conducts airstrikes across U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) areas, aiming at al-Shabab leaders and training facilities in coordination with the Somali federal government. Officials state that recent air operations have targeted facilities used for producing improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and destroyed explosive-laden vehicles before their deployment.
Abdi emphasized that Somali intelligence services provide verified targeting information, while AFRICOM insists on conducting precision strikes and evaluating potential civilian harm beforehand. However, the airstrikes have drawn criticism from human rights organizations due to civilian casualties, and AFRICOM acknowledges some instances and conducts investigations into such allegations.
Impact of Airpower
Mogadishu-based security analyst Abdullahi Ahmed Ali noted that expanded aerial surveillance and strike capabilities have transformed the battlefield dynamics. Previously, Somali government forces and al-Shabab operated with similar ground weaponry, but the government lacked sustained airpower and ongoing surveillance. The deployment of drones has enabled forces to locate al-Shabab's underground hideouts and identify supply routes that were previously inaccessible, allowing for easier ground advances.
Drones now serve as an early warning system for militant movements near Mogadishu, where al-Shabab still conducts bombings despite heightened security measures.
Ongoing Challenges and Future Steps
As the African Union Transition Mission starts to reduce its footprint in Somalia, the need for air support and international intelligence coordination becomes increasingly vital. Meanwhile, Somalia is also grappling with overlapping challenges such as climate-related drought, political tensions between federal and regional authorities, and significant funding shortfalls affecting security and humanitarian operations.
Experts stress that for territorial gains against al-Shabab to be effective, they must be consolidated through effective governance and the provision of services. In the past, al-Shabab has been able to reclaim territory once government forces withdrew or failed to establish a lasting presence.
Somali authorities maintain that thousands of al-Shabab fighters have been killed during recent intensified campaigns, although these figures remain unverifiable. While strides have been made in increasing the government's foothold in multiple regions, al-Shabab retains the ability to operate in large parts of southern Somalia. The government's next steps will involve continued operations alongside international partners and efforts to reconstruct and provide aid in newly captured areas to prevent al-Shabab from reestablishing control.
Despite the reported progress by the government, al-Shabab remains one of Africa's most resilient militant groups and represents a significant threat. The onus will be on Somalia to translate military gains into lasting stability as international peacekeeping forces continue to scale back their roles.
