MEKELE, Ethiopia (AP) — Gebreegziabher Berehe, a tour guide in Ethiopia's northern Tigray region, has ceased waiting for tourists amid escalating tensions and fears of renewed conflict. With his bookings dwindling and ATMs running dry in Mekele, the regional capital, Berehe is contemplating leaving a country where he can no longer afford to live. “If war arises again, I think the situation will be even more severe than before,” the 37-year-old lamented. “My colleagues and I are now facing serious economic and moral crises, even before hearing the sound of any gun.”
Mekele, despite a tense calm, is witnessing a resurgence of tensions between local authorities and the Ethiopian government in Addis Ababa. Tigray has been preparing for the potential resurgence of conflict following a peace deal signed in November 2022, which ended a previous violent confrontation that resulted in the deaths of thousands as federal troops, supported by Eritrean forces, fought against Tigrayan forces. However, Tigray's leadership claims that the Ethiopian federal government has violated the agreement by carrying out drone strikes, raising alarms of a new escalation. Meanwhile, the Ethiopian government accuses Eritrea of allegedly mobilizing and funding armed groups in Tigray.
In a chilling prospect, Eritrea may ally with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, the governing body in Tigray, against Ethiopian forces. The prior conflict was marked by devastating human rights violations, including widespread sexual violence and the use of starvation as a weapon of war. Local residents are anxious, with many searching for ways to escape potential fighting while recalling the strict communication blackouts and travel restrictions imposed by the government during the last conflict.
Observers point to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s assertive stance on reclaiming access to the Red Sea as a possible trigger for renewed hostilities. Access was lost when Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993 after years of guerrilla warfare. Recently, Abiy expressed during a parliamentary session that the Red Sea and Ethiopia "cannot remain separated forever." In response, Yemane Gebremeskel, Eritrea's government spokesperson, dismissed Abiy’s ambitions as “delusional malaise.” Eritrea has started to mend ties with Tigray’s leaders in fear of a military strike on its port of Assab, prompting Ethiopia to call up reserve forces in response.
Since taking office in 2018, Abiy has aimed to create a positive global image of Ethiopia but has faced setbacks from multiple conflicts over the years. The international community, including United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, has urged all parties to practice restraint, a sentiment echoed by the European Union and the United Kingdom, which has advised its citizens against traveling to the region.
Amid these tensions, Ethiopian Airlines canceled flights to Tigray on January 29, after violent clashes occurred between federal troops and Tigrayan forces. Flights resumed on February 3, following a brief halt. The renewed violence included drone strikes that resulted in one fatality and injuries. Tigray authorities attributed the attacks to Ethiopian forces, although the military did not respond to these accusations.
The local tourism sector, a crucial source of income and employment due to Tigray's ancient rock-hewn churches and stunning landscapes, has taken a significant hit. Operators like Berehe fear the impact of lost revenue, while local farmers like Johannes Tesfay are anxious as supply chain disruptions worsen. Tesfay, who grows crops in Debretsion, described the dire situation of not having fuel for irrigation or transportation to market, essential for selling his produce.
When questioned about what he would do if fighting resumed, Tesfay could only look to the mountains and state, “What can we do? All we can do is pray. We need help from the global community to make some kind of reconciliation between all the forces.”
