CALGARY – A prominent oil market analyst has announced that a significant increase to his commodity price forecast for this year is inevitable. However, the extent of this increase will be influenced by the duration of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has disrupted global crude shipments.
Al Salazar, the head of macro oil and gas research at Enverus, initially predicted a price of US$61 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate crude for the year 2026. This forecast was made prior to the escalation of military actions between the United States and Israel against Iran that began just over a week ago. Salazar is now revising his prediction, stating that it is certain to rise beyond US$70 on average for the year. He expresses skepticism about U.S. President Donald Trump's suggestion that the conflict could be resolved within four to five weeks.
Earlier in the day, global crude prices surged to over US$100 per barrel, although they later receded to approximately US$96 per barrel during midday trading. Despite this reduction, the current prices still represent a remarkable increase of more than 40 percent compared to levels before the conflict erupted.
Salazar emphasizes that while the surge in oil prices will bolster government revenues in oil-producing provinces such as Alberta, it poses an economic challenge for consumers. The rising fuel costs may compel individuals to cut back on spending in other areas to accommodate the increased expenses associated with fuel.
This ongoing situation continues to evolve, and its implications for the oil market and the broader economy are closely monitored by analysts and investors alike. As the conflict persists, further developments are anticipated to further impact oil prices and economic conditions globally.
The report initially surfaced on March 9, 2026, underscoring the ongoing volatility in the oil market as geopolitical tensions shape commodity forecasts. The ramifications of these events are likely to resonate throughout various sectors of the economy as the year progresses.
