The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has revised its outlook for home sales in 2026, indicating a decline in anticipated activity across the national housing market. The latest data reveals that home sales in Canada dropped by 2.3 percent in March compared to the same month in the previous year. This downward trend prompted CREA to adjust its forecast for total residential properties sold, expecting around 474,972 sales for the entire year. This figure represents a modest increase of one percent over 2025, a significant decrease from the prior forecast made in January, which predicted a growth of 5.1 percent year-over-year.
Moreover, CREA has adjusted its predictions for national average home prices in 2026. The average price is now anticipated to rise by 1.5 percent annually, reaching approximately $688,955. This estimate reflects a decrease of about $10,000 compared to earlier projections made at the beginning of the year.
An analysis of home prices reveals that in March, the national average sale price experienced a decline of 0.8 percent from the same period last year, amounting to $673,084. Additionally, CREA's home price index, designed to track the sale prices of typical homes, demonstrated a slight decrease of 0.4 percent between February and March. On a year-over-year basis, however, this index saw a more substantial drop of 4.7 percent, indicating a notable trend of declining home values over the past year.
CREA attributes the recent stagnation in national home sales to a combination of rising global economic uncertainty and a surge in fixed mortgage rates, which are likely linked to anticipated higher inflation. This scenario has compounded the challenges facing the real estate market, contributing to an already unstable economic environment at the start of 2026.
In summary, CREA's latest report provides a sobering perspective on the Canadian housing market, highlighting both a downturn in sales activities and a downward trend in home prices. This situation poses significant implications for prospective buyers and sellers, as well as for policymakers concerned about housing affordability and market stability in Canada.
