STOCKHOLM, Sweden (AP) — Russia's intelligence agencies have intensified efforts to acquire Western technology and defense secrets as sanctions impact the country's wartime economy, according to statements from three senior European intelligence officials. Moscow's agents are creating fake companies, enlisting middlemen, and employing cyber spies and hackers to collect valuable information that could also be utilized for attacks on critical infrastructure.
Four years of international sanctions have severely hindered Moscow's ability to obtain machinery, technology, and research from Europe. Concurrently, the ongoing war in Ukraine has put stress on key industries, pushing the country closer to a potential financial crisis. "They truly know what they need," remarked Christoffer Wedelin, deputy head of operations at the Swedish Security Service, emphasizing the serious efforts directed at acquiring advanced machine tools, factory equipment, dual-use technology, and high-end research.
Russia's focus includes ambitious aspirations within Sweden’s defense industry, particularly on advanced weaponry research such as the Gripen fighter jet. Wedelin noted that Russia is attempting to procure civilian-developed technology, including camera and laser systems, which could be adapted for military purposes. Moreover, Juha Martelius, director of Finland's Security and Intelligence Service, indicated that Russia is also seeking technologies that could maintain or enhance its competitive edge against the West, including space technology, quantum advancements, arctic innovations, and marine technology.
Anne Keast-Butler, director of the UK's signals intelligence agency, accused Russia of "relentlessly targeting" the UK and its European allies, stealing technology and plotting acts of sabotage and assassination. In May, Swedish police arrested individuals linked to a Turkish company that had shipped numerous metalworking machine tools to Russia in violation of sanctions.
As efforts to acquire technology evolve and become more complex, companies must remain vigilant to avoid inadvertently becoming part of Russia's war supply chain, according to Wedelin. He stated, "All of the security and intelligence services in Russia are aiding in the state's efforts to acquire this technology."
Intel officials observed that Russia appears to be less concerned about detection in its operations. Moscow is ramping up cyberattacks targeted at European firms and critical infrastructure to gather information, which could be exploited “when the opportunity arises,” as per Wedelin. He provided an example of a Russian attack on a Swedish power plant that aimed to disrupt operations and undermine Western support for Ukraine. This attack represented a notable shift in tactics, moving beyond reconnaissance to actual attempts to inflict damage.
Current economic pressures on Russia have prompted these increasingly aggressive maneuvers. Kaupo Rosin, head of Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, indicated that Russia’s economy is struggling significantly, with about one-third of its gross domestic product being allocated to the war effort. The conflict and resulting sanctions have lead to sluggish economic growth and persistent inflation.
Despite a recent boost in revenue from rising oil prices, compounded by Western sanctions waivers pertaining to Russian oil sales due to the recent Iran war, Rosin cautioned that this financial improvement does not provide a solution. With ongoing Western pressure, experts predict that Moscow may face a financial crisis later this year. Intelligence indicates a growing sense of gloom among Russian officials, with the narrative of "total victory" in Ukraine fading.
While some information reaching President Vladimir Putin may be sanitized, experts believe that he has an understanding of the economic challenges. However, this awareness does not necessarily predict political changes. Martelius pointed out the danger of viewing Russia through a typical Western lens, cautioned against simplistic analyses, and underlined the unique dynamics within Russian governance.
