TORONTO – According to a recent report by BMO Economics, the upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup is anticipated to provide a modest boost to Canada's gross domestic product (GDP), primarily fueled by increased spending in the tourism and hospitality sectors. Doug Porter, the chief economist at BMO, emphasized the tangible economic impacts that accompany major sporting events or entertainment occasions. However, he cautioned that such benefits are generally fleeting and tend to be relatively modest in scale.
The report estimates that tourism-related gains for the Canadian economy could range from $1 billion to $5 billion, while additional spending by residents is expected to reach between $500 million and $1.5 billion. These economic uplifts may lead to a quarterly GDP increase of roughly 0.1 percentage points when annualized, particularly evident in the second and third quarters of the year. The economic impact is expected to be most significant in provinces such as Ontario and British Columbia, where matches will be hosted.
Porter noted that any growth, regardless of its scale, would be beneficial in light of the challenges the Canadian economy has faced in achieving meaningful growth over the past year. He remarked, “Even modest growth should be viewed as a win,” particularly following a report from Statistics Canada indicating that economic growth had stalled in the first quarter, resulting in a second consecutive decline in real GDP—an occurrence that some consider a technical recession.
As the tournament approaches, the report highlights that while the United States is likely to reap the most considerable rewards from tourism spending, Canada and Mexico are also poised to experience economic benefits. The rise in consumer spending at bars and restaurants is anticipated, with a report from Moneris indicating a more than 10 percent increase in such expenditures in Canada during the 2022 World Cup.
The BMO report calls attention to the strongest argument for hosting the World Cup: a short-term demand surge rather than a sustainable foundation for long-term economic growth. In the past, World Cup organizers have projected substantial economic benefits; for instance, FIFA estimated that the Greater Toronto Area could see up to $940 million in economic output, and the B.C. government previously stated that the event could generate over a billion dollars in tourism revenue within five years following the games.
Moreover, a recent evaluation by Canada’s federal budget watchdog indicated that expenditures to host the World Cup this summer would exceed $1 billion. This total encompasses contributions from various levels of government, with the federal government accounting for an anticipated $473 million of the overall budget. When divided across the 13 matches set to take place in Toronto and Vancouver, the overall expenditure translates to an average of about $82 million per game.
In conclusion, stakeholders are closely monitoring the potential economic impacts of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on Canada's economy. While expectations are tempered by the recognition of short-lived benefits, event organizers and economists alike remain hopeful that the tournament will offer at least a temporary uplift to the local economies of the host regions.
