According to a new analysis from AP-NORC, independents have increasingly expressed dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump throughout his second term, particularly among those without a college degree. The polling data, which aggregates nearly two dozen AP-NORC surveys conducted between July 2024 and April 2026, reveals a significant decline in the president's approval ratings within this crucial demographic, which previously leaned more favorably toward him.
Before the 2024 election, nearly half of independents without a college degree viewed Trump positively. However, this approval rating dropped sharply to about one-quarter by spring 2026. This shift has diminished the educational gap that previously characterized independent voters’ views of Trump, resulting in similarly negative attitudes across educational backgrounds.
The analysis highlights that while Democrats’ and Republicans’ views of Trump have remained largely stable during his second term, independents' opinions are in flux. Tafari Torres, a senior research associate at NORC, noted that independents are more reactive to current events, which suggests a more volatile political landscape for Trump. The compiled data indicates that support for Trump began to erode quickly as he assumed the presidency again, particularly during dramatic events such as the government shutdown and the onset of the Iran war.
In 2024, independents without a college degree initially held a more favorable view of Trump, but their support fell sharply to 31% during the first 100 days of his presidency. This decline continued, with approval ratings dipping to around 25% during significant political events. In contrast, the drop in favorable views among college-educated independents was less pronounced, indicating a stronger resilience in their opinions.
Additionally, the polling data reveals disappointing trends among groups that had previously shown support for Trump, such as Black and Hispanic independents. In 2024, 42% of independent voters supported Trump, up from 37% in 2020, reflecting a momentary increase in approval. However, by spring 2026, Trump’s rating among Hispanic independents plummeted from nearly 50% favorable post-election to as low as 15% during the government shutdown.
Furthermore, younger independents also reported declining support for Trump, contrasting with older independents aged 60 and above, whose opinions remained mostly stable. This demographic shift suggests that the gains Trump made in the 2024 election may not hold, as indicated by Torres, who emphasized that many of these shifts do not appear to be lasting.
The root cause of many independents’ frustrations with Trump seems to stem from economic concerns. Approximately half of those who supported Trump in 2024 cited inflation as their primary motivator. With ongoing challenges such as rising food and gas prices exacerbated by the Iran war, populist discontent continues to grow. Current polling shows 30% of independents expressing extreme concern over affordability for essentials like groceries and gas, with 80% describing the U.S. economy as poor.
As of spring 2026, only 30% of independents approved of Trump’s handling of the economy, a consistent statistic since the beginning of his second term. The sentiment surrounding the cost of living continues to be particularly stark, with just 12% of independents expressing approval of Trump's approach to this pressing issue.
The analysis involved 4,836 independents classified as those who did not identify with or lean toward either major political party, offering a comprehensive view of this key voting segment during Trump’s second term.
