Royal LePage, a prominent Canadian real estate company, has increased its national housing price forecast for 2026. This adjustment is attributed to a rising demand that continues to outstrip supply in various regions of Canada. The company now anticipates that the aggregate price of homes across the country will rise by two percent in the fourth quarter of 2026, reaching approximately $823,344 when compared to the same quarter in the previous year. This marks an upward revision from an earlier projection of just one percent growth.
Among the regions expected to experience significant growth, Quebec City stands out with a projected year-over-year price increase of eight percent. The Greater Montreal Area and Winnipeg are forecasted to see a five percent increase in home prices, while Halifax, Edmonton, and Regina are each expected to experience a four percent growth, according to the updated report.
Conversely, the two most expensive markets in Canada, Vancouver and Toronto, are likely to witness declines in home prices. Predictions indicate a decrease of 3.5 percent in Vancouver and a two percent fall in Toronto compared to late 2025. This trend reflects the ongoing challenges in these competitive markets amidst an overall increase in prices elsewhere in the country.
The report notes that the spring housing market began to stabilize in May after a slow start to the year, with this positive momentum carrying into June. Royal LePage President and CEO Phil Soper expressed optimism that the fall market will continue on this upward trajectory, fueled by pent-up demand from both buyers and sellers who had postponed their plans earlier in the year.
Soper commented, "Several regions are now seeing that uptick in momentum carry into summer, as buyers who held back earlier in the year re-enter the market." He highlighted that many consumers have not hesitated due to a lack of interest but rather due to a lack of urgency, especially in markets with elevated inventory levels. Buyers are now afforded the luxury of time, allowing them to browse and wait for the right property to emerge.
The backdrop of economic uncertainty continues to shape Canadians' decisions regarding real estate. High inflation, driven in part by rising energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, coupled with an uncertain future regarding Canada’s trade relationship with the United States, has led many consumers to reassess their financial commitments. Soper pointed out that ambiguity surrounding the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) further contributes to this hesitancy, which might impact consumer confidence regarding significant financial decisions like purchasing or selling a home.
Additionally, the report indicates that the aggregate price of homes in Canada decreased by 1.4 percent year-over-year to $814,900 in the second quarter. However, on a quarter-over-quarter basis, the national aggregate home price saw minimal change, only rising by 0.2 percent. In terms of housing types, the median price of a single-family detached home fell by 0.9 percent year-over-year to $862,400, while the median price of condominiums declined by 2.9 percent to $574,800. Quarter-over-quarter, the median price for single-family homes rose by 0.6 percent, contrasting with a 0.5 percent decrease for condominiums.
The report also noted a narrowing price gap between Canada’s most and least expensive markets. While the aggregate price of homes fell by 4.5 percent year-over-year in Greater Vancouver and by 4.6 percent in the Greater Toronto Area during the second quarter, limited supply in other regions of the country has driven prices higher nationally. This trend of decreasing home prices in major urban centers may open opportunities for buyers who were previously priced out of these markets.
Overall, while secondary markets in Canada continue to see steady price increases, the dynamics of the housing market are shifting, potentially leading to less interprovincial migration compared to previous years. These trends reflect broader economic patterns and the continuing evolution of the Canadian housing landscape.
