WASHINGTON (AP) – The U.S. military has paused its airstrikes on Iran following nearly two weeks of escalating bombing, as diplomatic efforts continue to prevent a return to full-scale war. However, it remains uncertain whether the U.S. and Iran are at a significant turning point in the ongoing conflict that is nearing its five-month mark this Tuesday.
President Donald Trump has both threatened additional strikes and emphasized ongoing talks, while dismissing concerns that increasing gas prices linked to the conflict could negatively impact Republicans during the upcoming midterm elections in November. The situation is further complicated by the upcoming visit of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Washington, as Israel, which initiated the war with the U.S. on February 28, has notably refrained from participating in the recent American offensives against Iran’s strategic actions in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping area responsible for 20% of the world’s oil supply.
Michael Singh, managing director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, commented on Israel’s potential role, stating, “The Iranians understand that perhaps it could get worse because Israel could come into the conflict.” He also noted that Israel's absence could indicate to the Iranians that the U.S. is attempting to keep the conflict contained. Singh, who served as senior Middle East director on the National Security Council during the George W. Bush administration, cautioned against drawing firm conclusions from the current pause in fighting. “If it turns into a multiday pause, that’ll be something significant,” he remarked, questioning whether it signifies an operational break or serves as a backdrop for diplomatic negotiations.
A regional official involved in mediation efforts indicated that active diplomacy is ongoing, and the halt in U.S. and Iranian strikes presents a “positive signal” for de-escalation. This official asserted that both parties are looking to revert to an interim ceasefire deal, with negotiations currently focusing on allowing Iran to manage vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz with reduced shipping restrictions. However, the official requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the discussions.
During the initial phases of the war, Iran exerted strong control over the Strait by targeting tankers and freighters, causing oil prices to soar and creating discontent among the American populace, which could jeopardize some Republican lawmakers’ positions in the upcoming elections. The conflict escalated following an interim ceasefire agreement in June, which resulted in a struggle for dominance over the shipping lane. Iran’s demand that ships utilize a coastal route near their territory has led to increased vessel navigation along a southern route, carefully monitored by U.S. operations, following attacks on vessels by Iran.
The recent U.S. attacks focused on Iran’s coastal defenses to hinder its capability to target ships in the strait. The Trump administration has broadened its military objectives, launching strikes on bridges and infrastructure deeper within Iran. Singh noted that these actions seem intended to compel Iran back to negotiations, raising questions about any shifts in the Iranian regime’s willingness to engage diplomatically as the situation unfolds.
Challenges for the U.S. include navigating the fragmented leadership within Iran, where competing factions could view compromise with the U.S. as a sign of weakness. Nonetheless, both nations rely on the Strait of Hormuz for economic reasons, albeit under contrasting terms of control and conditions.
Tension in the region remains high despite the pause in fighting. Recent actions by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who announced missile and drone strikes against Saudi Arabia following Saudi airstrikes in Hodeida, have exacerbated the situation. The Iran-supported rebels claim to have closed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, vital for Saudi oil exports, further complicating the region’s dynamics since the conflict began.
Moreover, the U.S. military has maintained its naval blockade of Iranian ports, recently disabling a Mozambique-flagged ship in the Gulf of Oman for attempting to breach the blockade. Despite the pause, Trump has issued continued threats toward Iran while highlighting ongoing diplomatic talks. He indicated there are two potential exit strategies: one involving persistent military action or negotiating with Iran, which he believes may not be ready to strike a deal yet, yet could become more serious over time as the conflict persists.
While tensions continue to escalate, Trump's priority remains to manage the situation without a rushed approach due to the impending elections, asserting that handling it correctly is of utmost importance.
