OTTAWA — Green Party Leader Elizabeth May expressed confidence in the party's potential to achieve an upset victory in the North Vancouver-Capilano byelection, scheduled for August 31. This optimism stems from a strategic focus on criticizing the Liberal government's rollbacks of climate policies. May believes that the Greens can capitalize on the discontent surrounding environmental issues, particularly in the wake of new projects promoted by Prime Minister Mark Carney.
In this byelection, the Greens have nominated Shelley Luce, an environmental scientist holding a doctorate from UCLA and a former advisor to the City of North Vancouver. Historically, the Green Party has faced challenges in this riding, with its best performances resulting in third-place finishes in 2008 and 2015, and a fourth-place finish with just 12 percent of the vote in 2019.
May argues that several factors could work in favor of the Greens this time around, notably the political backlash against major developments like the planned dredging of Vancouver's Burrard Inlet to accommodate larger oil tankers connected to the Trans Mountain pipeline. This project, first proposed by Carney for implementation in 2025, has raised environmental concerns among local groups regarding its impact on wildlife.
The byelection was triggered by the departure of former natural resources minister Jonathan Wilkinson, who left the North Vancouver-Capilano seat after being appointed as Canada’s ambassador to the European Union by Carney. The Liberal Party has nominated Braeden Caley, Carney's former deputy chief of staff, while the Conservatives are putting forth lawyer Stephen Curran, who secured second place against Wilkinson in the last election, garnering a third of the votes.
While May is hopeful about the Greens' chances, she acknowledges the difficulty of winning. “It’s hardly in the bag that Greens are going to win,” she stated, emphasizing the strength of the party's candidate as a key factor for voters in a byelection context. May described the byelection as a “risk-free trial” for potential voters, allowing them to assess Luce’s performance in the role before the next general election.
Poll analyst Éric Grenier, of The Writ, expressed skepticism about the Greens securing victory in the North Vancouver-Capilano riding. He suggested that while the Greens might achieve a respectable result, it would likely be surprising for them to actually win. He pointed out that the party's current support in British Columbia is only about five percent, illustrating the disparity between winning a small district versus a larger riding with 100,000 voters.
Despite the electoral hurdles, the Greens recently demonstrated unexpected strength in a provincial byelection when their candidate Tayte Willows defeated P.E.I. Liberal Leader Robert Mitchell. Grenier acknowledged that he previously underestimated the Greens' potential, thus leaving some room for surprises, though he maintains that this particular riding poses significant challenges.
As the Green Party intensifies its focus on the forthcoming byelections, it concurrently finds itself engaged in a leadership race, with nominations having closed on July 17. The party has allowed candidates to run independently or as co-leadership pairs. When asked about the effectiveness of a co-leader model, May referenced the successful performance of the Green Party of England and Wales, which achieved notable results by employing co-leaders in recent elections.
May reflected on her previous co-leadership experience with Jonathan Pedneault, sharing her disappointment over the circumstances that led to his resignation from politics. She articulated a desire for the party to transition into a period of refreshed leadership, expressing confidence that the new leader would effectively represent the Green Party’s message and engage with constituents to promote its democratic values.
In summary, the upcoming byelection in North Vancouver-Capilano is set against a backdrop of political tension amid environmental controversies, with the Green Party aiming to leverage these issues while undergoing a pivotal leadership transition.
