A recent study conducted by Statistics Canada highlights that while it may be increasingly challenging for youth to find employment, the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) is not a primary factor. The study, released last week, concluded that there is "no broad evidence" indicating that AI has significantly decreased hiring rates or increased job separation rates in Canada following the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022.
The research examined data from labour force surveys focusing on individuals aged 15 to 64, drawn from the period between January 2006 and August 2026. Types of employment were classified based on both their potential exposure to AI technology and whether AI serves as a complement or substitute for human capabilities. According to Tahsin Mehdi, a senior research economist at Statistics Canada and co-author of the study, “AI is no doubt reshaping workflows and redefining jobs right now. I have no doubt about that. It’s just, it may not be eliminating entire jobs right now.”
The data analyzed indicated that hiring and separation rates from November 2022 to August 2026 remained generally stable and within historical ranges. This trend applied not only to the overall worker population but also specifically to younger workers and those in occupations considered more susceptible to AI substitution, such as data-entry clerks and computer programmers. Despite the stability in hiring rates, the study noted a decline in new employment opportunities for young individuals across various industries, marking a hiring rate drop for employees aged 15 to 29 from four percent to 3.3 percent in jobs with low AI exposure, and from 3.2 percent to three percent in jobs more vulnerable to AI takeover.
Mehdi elaborated on the complexities of the current labour market, stating, “We have a lot of competing economic forces out there,” including trade dynamics, U.S. tariffs, and recent immigration trends. He emphasized that differentiating the specific impacts of AI is challenging amidst these various influences. For instance, the hiring rate in coding-intensive jobs fell from 2.5 percent to 1.9 percent during the same time frame. However, Mehdi pointed out that firms may have over-hired in this sector during the pandemic, leading to a natural adjustment rather than a direct consequence of AI.
Employment growth has remained weak for younger workers across all job categories following the pandemic, suggesting that the labour market is still grappling with aftershocks from the COVID-19 crisis. The study suggests that these dynamics can complicate the understanding of AI's role within the employment landscape.
Amid ongoing anxiety regarding AI’s potential job impact, a recent report revealed that Microsoft is offering voluntary buyouts to approximately 60,000 employees across Canada, India, the United Kingdom, and the United States as the company invests heavily in AI. Viet Vu, the manager of economic research at The Dais, a think tank at Toronto Metropolitan University, supports Statistics Canada’s findings, indicating that the observable impact of AI on the Canadian labour market is not yet detectable. He pointed out that fears surrounding AI stem from its ability to transform various sectors rapidly.
Moreover, Vu mentioned that while the technological evolution is unsettling, young people face additional anxiety regarding the possible disruption of the traditional job acquisition process. He explained that if crucial steps for gaining experience and entering the workforce diminish, significant challenges could arise for future job seekers.
Vu highlighted that studies such as the Statistics Canada report provide essential insights that can alleviate immediate fears and counteract sensationalized narratives about AI's effects on employment. Nonetheless, he acknowledged that these findings do not mitigate broader concerns regarding the evolving job market. He stressed the importance of continued research to monitor labour market trends, especially as AI adoption accelerates, to effectively respond to future challenges.
The authors of the study emphasized that the findings are preliminary and urged the necessity of ongoing observation of labour market dynamics to ascertain how technological advancements, including AI, are reshaping the economic landscape and affecting various segments of the workforce.
