The head of Canada's aluminum industry, Jean Simard, the president and CEO of the Aluminum Association of Canada, has indicated that the recent U.S. midterm election results could signify a critical turning point in the ongoing trade dispute between Canada and the United States. In his statements made on Wednesday, Simard emphasized that the election results convey a clear message reflecting American voters' growing frustrations with the economic consequences of U.S. trade policies.
Simard expressed optimism that the election outcomes could exert pressure on U.S. officials to reconsider and possibly roll back the tariffs that have impacted Canadian aluminum exports significantly. Canada produces approximately 3.3 million tonnes of aluminum annually, with around 90 percent of its production being exported. Historically, a substantial portion of these exports has been directed toward the United States. However, U.S. tariffs of 50 percent on Canadian aluminum have compelled producers in Canada to shift their focus toward European markets instead.
Additionally, Simard hopes that the midterm election results will encourage U.S. lawmakers to confront the trade policies established by President Donald Trump and generate new momentum towards reaching a favorable trade agreement with Canada. He noted, "I’m certainly far more optimistic than I’ve ever been, because the signal is overwhelmingly clearer than I thought it would be."
In a parallel sentiment, Dan Kelly, president of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, stated on X that he anticipates the election results will drive Washington toward establishing a durable trade deal with Canada. He pointed out that the election outcomes illustrate how the trade dispute has exacerbated affordability challenges in border states and the Midwest region. Kelly highlighted that a significant majority, specifically 87 percent of Canadian small businesses, is eager for a resolution to the trade conflict as swiftly as possible.
Despite the optimistic outlook from industry leaders, some experts caution against expecting a major shift in U.S. trade policy. Andreas Schotter, a professor of international business at Western University’s Ivey Business School, warned that even among Democrats, there is a strong “America First” sentiment that could hinder significant changes. “For businesses, there’s no immediate change… I don’t see us all of a sudden going back to full CUSMA,” he remarked, referencing the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement that replaced NAFTA in 2020.
Schotter also noted that President Joe Biden largely maintained the trade policies introduced during Trump's administration. The Trump administration initially imposed a 10 percent tariff on aluminum imports in 2018. Canada was briefly exempt from these tariffs but faced them from June 2018 until May 2019, when the exemption was restored. However, tariffs on certain Canadian aluminum products were briefly reinstated in 2020 before Biden took office and then sharply escalated again under Trump’s renewed administration. In March 2025, 25 percent tariffs were placed on Canadian aluminum before being raised to 50 percent on June 4, 2025.
In response to the tariffs, Canada’s three principal primary aluminum producers—Rio Tinto, Alcoa, and Aluminerie Alouette—adapted by initially fulfilling orders from American clients despite the tariffs. Over time, however, these companies redirected their shipments toward European markets. This strategic pivot has allowed the Canadian aluminum industry to maintain steady production levels without resorting to layoffs or production cuts, even in the face of ongoing and steep U.S. tariffs.
