A recent study reveals that U.S. children whose parents divorce when they are age 5 or younger experience negative long-term consequences, including reduced adult earnings and increased risks of teen pregnancy, incarceration, and death. The research, conducted by economists at the University of California, Merced, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the University of Maryland, highlights the multifaceted effects of parental separation.
The study notes that after a divorce, a family's income typically decreases by half as it splits into two households. Over the following decade, these families often struggle to regain their financial stability. Additionally, they tend to relocate to lower-income neighborhoods that offer fewer economic opportunities, resulting in children becoming more socially distant from their non-custodial parents.
The study identifies three primary factors contributing to the negative outcomes for children of divorce: loss of financial resources, decline in neighborhood quality, and reduced parental involvement. Collectively, these factors accounted for 25% to 60% of the adverse effects associated with divorce. The economists emphasized that divorce should be viewed not merely as a legal event, but as a combination of impactful changes, including financial loss, community displacement, and familial restructuring.
Approximately one-third of American children go through their parents' divorce before reaching adulthood. Despite the challenges faced by many children from divorced families, some have achieved significant successes. Notable examples include former President Barack Obama and Vice President JD Vance, who have spoken publicly about the effects of divorce and the ease with which it can be pursued.
Interestingly, the U.S. divorce rate has been declining for the past decade and a half, dropping from over 10% in 2008 to about 7% in 2022. However, the study indicates that the emotional impacts of divorce on children are less quantifiable. For example, Brandon Hellan, 54, reflected on how his parents' divorce in his early 20s shaped his attitudes toward marriage and commitment, leading him to establish emotional barriers in relationships.
While the study provides evidence of the negative consequences of divorce, it does not speculate on how familial outcomes might differ if parents had chosen to stay together. Philip Cohen, a sociologist at the University of Maryland, commented that parents often weigh the potential drawbacks of divorce against their own circumstances and the well-being of their children.
Previous research has yielded mixed findings regarding the impact of divorce on children, with some studies suggesting that remaining in an unhappy marriage may be more harmful due to exposure to parental conflict. In contrast, some argue that divorce can facilitate a healthier environment for both parents and children. Moreover, other studies have noted minimal effects from divorce on children's lives.
A significant limitation in drawing firm conclusions has been the lack of comprehensive data. The researchers of the recent study overcame this barrier by linking federal tax records, Social Security Administration data, and Census Bureau information for children born in the U.S. between 1988 and 1993, enabling an analysis of parental marital histories and child outcomes across childhood and into adulthood.
The study focused on siblings to compare outcomes based on the timing of parental divorce. It found that children whose parents divorced before the age of 5 had a 13% lower income by age 27, while children who experienced parental separation after turning 18 showed negligible financial effects. Similarly, the likelihood of teen pregnancy increased for children whose parents divorced before they turned 15 but diminished by age 20, as did the prospect of incarceration. By age 25, children of divorced parents showed no significant difference regarding marriage rates compared to their peers from intact families.
Overall, the research indicates that the consequences of divorce impact children uniformly across various demographic groups.
