WASHINGTON (AP) — Anticipate several years of unprecedented heat, as significant forecasts from renowned weather agencies indicate a chance for record-breaking global temperatures. The World Meteorological Organization and the U.K. Meteorological Office predict an 80% likelihood of surpassing another annual temperature record within the next five years. They're also indicating that it's increasingly probable for the world to exceed the critical temperature threshold established ten years ago.
According to climate scientist Natalie Mahowald from Cornell University, the implications of rising global mean temperatures are profound. She explains that the higher temperatures lead to an escalated risk of extreme weather phenomena, including stronger hurricanes, heavier precipitation, and intensified droughts. “Higher global mean temperatures translate to more lives lost,” she stated, underscoring the mortal consequences of climate change.
Increased global temperatures, driven by human-caused climate change, also suggest an uptick in the frequency and severity of extreme events, particularly heat waves, droughts, floods, and intensified hurricanes and typhoons. Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, echoed this sentiment, highlighting that with every fraction of a degree increase, the situation worsens.
For the first time, there is a slight chance that the annual temperature will cross the 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) limit set by the Paris climate accord before the decade concludes, with projections revealing an 86% chance of one of the next five years reaching this threshold. There's a 70% probability that the average across this five-year span will surpass the 1.5-degree milestone. This marks a significant increase in risk, especially when compared to forecasts from a decade ago, which estimated only a 1% chance of breaching that critical temperature threshold.
Adam Scaife and Leon Hermanson from the UK Met Office noted that the prospect of reaching 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels is now appearing more plausible, which they described as "shocking." The Paris agreement’s critical secondary threshold, two degrees of warming, is now being scrutinized as global average temperatures continue to rise.
Although 2024 will record a 1.5 degrees Celsius increase compared to pre-industrial times, this has not yet been considered a breach of the Paris agreement's criteria since that threshold is assessed over a 20-year average. Currently, the world is approximately 1.4 degrees Celsius (2.5 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer since the mid-1800s, as estimated by Chris Hewitt, climate services director at the World Meteorological Organization.
Forecasts indicating that the coming five years may average more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels place vast numbers of people at an increased risk for severe heat waves, leading to higher incidence of deaths and significant health challenges unless protective measures are implemented. Richard Betts, head of climate impacts research at the UK Met Office, projected that more extreme wildfires will emerge given the drier landscapes caused by hotter atmospheric conditions.
The Arctic region, which is warming approximately 3.5 times faster than other parts of the globe, continues to melt, contributing to faster sea-level rise. Scientists often describe the trajectory of global temperatures as akin to riding an escalator—with shifts caused by natural phenomena like El Niño representing temporary jumps. However, recent observations suggest that after these jumps, global temperatures do not typically revert much.
Stanford University climate scientist Rob Jackson remarked, “Record temperatures immediately become the new normal,” emphasizing the enduring nature of these rising temperatures. The latest data presents a concerning outlook for climate trends, underscoring the pressing need for effective climate action and preparedness for the extreme weather events anticipated in the near future.
