HANOI, Vietnam (AP) — In a significant shift in its demographic policy, Vietnam has abolished its long-standing two-child limit as of Tuesday. This decision aims to address the country’s declining birth rates and alleviate the pressures associated with an aging population. The National Assembly passed the amendments, which scrap regulations that restricted families to one or two children, according to state media Vietnam News Agency.
Vietnamese families are increasingly having fewer children, with the national birth rate dropping steadily. In 2021, the birth rate was recorded at 2.11 children per woman, just above the replacement level necessary to maintain a stable population. However, this figure fell to 2.01 in 2022, 1.96 in 2023, and further down to 1.91 in 2024. This trend reflects a growing concern regarding the sustainability of the country's demographic structure.
While Vietnam is not alone in experiencing low fertility rates, it is unique in being a developing economy facing such a demographic challenge. Countries like Japan, South Korea, and Singapore are already experiencing similar issues, but they differ significantly due to their advanced economic statuses.
Nguyen Thu Linh, a 37-year-old marketing manager residing in Hanoi, exemplifies the hesitation many couples face regarding family size. She and her husband decided to have only one child to provide the best education and upbringing possible for their 6-year-old son. Linh expressed, “Sometimes, I think about having another child so my son can have a sibling, but there’s so much financial and time pressure if you have another child.” This sentiment is echoed throughout Vietnam as families prioritize economic stability and quality of life.
Vietnam introduced rules limiting family size in 1988 to encourage women to spend more time in the workforce. The country's "golden population" period, marked by a higher ratio of working-age individuals to dependents, began in 2007 and is projected to continue until 2039. However, projections indicate that the number of working individuals may peak in 2042, after which a decline in population could pose challenges to economic growth amidst a growing elderly demographic.
The decline in birth rates is not uniform across the country. For instance, in Ho Chi Minh City, the fertility rate fell to just 1.39 children per woman in 2024, significantly lower than the national average. Additionally, nearly 12% of the city’s population is over 60 years old, increasing the strain on welfare services. Local authorities have taken measures to incentivize childbirth, offering approximately $120 to women who give birth to two children before the age of 35, starting last December.
Vietnam is also confronting an unbalanced gender ratio due to longstanding cultural preferences for sons. Current regulations prohibit doctors from disclosing the sex of a baby prior to birth, and sex-selective abortions are illegal. In response to ongoing concerns regarding gender imbalances, the health ministry has proposed to triple the fines for parents choosing the sex of their baby before birth to $3,800.
China, which famously implemented a one-child policy in 1979 to combat overpopulation, now faces its own challenges regarding an aging society and declining birth rates. The country has gradually relaxed its policies, allowing families to have two and then three children starting in 2021. However, similar to Vietnam, these efforts have yielded limited success in reversing the trend of declining birthrates.
