DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Amid escalating military tensions, Israel has intensified its airstrikes against Iran, focusing on military installations and nuclear facilities. In response, Iranian officials are weighing various options that extend beyond traditional ballistic missile retaliation.
The proposals put forth by Tehran resonate with strategies previously considered during confrontations with Israel or the United States over the last several decades. These strategies include disrupting maritime shipping through the pivotal Strait of Hormuz, contemplating withdrawal from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, and facilitating asymmetric attacks through militant groups.
Targeting the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz is crucial, serving as the narrow entrance to the Persian Gulf, where approximately 20% of globally traded oil passes through. Positioned between Iran and Oman, the strait measures only 33 kilometers (21 miles) at its narrowest point, with a shipping lane width of just 3 kilometers (2 miles) in each direction. Any disruption in this area is expected to reverberate through global energy markets, likely inflating crude oil prices and subsequently increasing consumer costs for gasoline and related products.
Since 2019, following President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and the reimposition of strict sanctions, there has been a significant uptick in attacks on shipping attributed to Iran. U.S. forces frequently navigate these waters as part of freedom of navigation operations, executed by the Bahrain-based U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet, to maintain an open maritime trade route. Iran views these U.S. operations as a breach of its sovereignty, akin to foreign military activities off the U.S. coast.
In light of recent Israeli aerial assaults, Iranian officials have openly threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, a move poised to elicit a robust American military response.
Withdrawal from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty
Concerns are mounting that Iran might choose to sever ties with the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) entirely and halt cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). As a member of the NPT, Iran is obligated to clarify any radioactive traces outside of specified sites and to assure the international community that its nuclear program remains peaceful. However, Iran's uranium enrichment has reached levels up to 60%, perilously close to weapon-grade thresholds of 90%. Although U.S. intelligence and IAEA assessments indicate that Iran has not actively pursued a military nuclear program since 2003, the prospect of withdrawal from the NPT raises alarms reminiscent of North Korea's precedent in 2003, which led to its first nuclear test in 2006.
Yet, Iran’s potential exit from the treaty could also precipitate U.S. involvement in the conflict, a scenario Tehran has aimed to avoid thus far.
Asymmetric Attacks by Militants
Another avenue Iran might explore includes fostering increased asymmetric attacks, specifically targeting Jewish tourists, synagogues, or Israeli diplomatic facilities. Historically, such tactics have been employed successfully, but in recent years, Iran’s regional proxies, referred to as the "Axis of Resistance," have faced significant setbacks due to ongoing Israeli operations since the October 7, 2023, Hamas assault on Israel. This has been particularly detrimental to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.
While militant groups in Iraq supported by Iran have remained inactive in this conflict, Yemen's Houthi rebels have recently emerged as the sole entity within the Axis willing to execute attacks against Israel since the escalation of hostilities.
