BARCELONA (AP) – Iran has recently claimed to possess hypersonic missiles and asserts that it has initiated strikes against Israel with these advanced weapons. However, there is no substantial evidence supporting Iran's claims, and experts express skepticism regarding the existence and efficacy of such missiles.
The introduction of hypersonic missiles poses a potential challenge to Israel's missile-defense systems and could significantly impact the ongoing conflict between the two nations. Hypersonic weapons are defined as any missile that travels faster than Mach 5, or five times the speed of sound. While ballistic missiles often reach this velocity, true hypersonic weapons are characterized not just by their speed but also by their advanced navigation systems, which allow them to maneuver and alter their trajectory mid-flight. This unpredictability complicates interception efforts compared to traditional ballistic missiles that follow a predictable path, according to Jack Watling, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.
Watling notes that traditional ballistic missiles are easier to track and anticipate due to their high-altitude trajectory. In contrast, hypersonic glide vehicles can fly at lower altitudes, where they can evade radar detection and obstacles such as hills. This capability reduces the response time available for missile defense systems to engage these projectiles, making them a serious threat to countries like Israel.
As for the global landscape of hypersonic missile technology, the United States and China are currently the only nations that have successfully developed next-generation hypersonic missiles, although neither has deployed them in armed conflicts. Other countries, including Russia, North Korea, and Pakistan, have conducted tests or utilized missiles with somewhat similar, albeit less advanced, technologies. A 2022 report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute indicates that the term "hypersonic" has become somewhat ambiguous, often serving to incite competition and fears of falling behind in technological advancements.
The U.S. has asserted its commitment to enhancing its military capabilities with hypersonic missiles, including plans to place these weapons on a stealth destroyer as part of ongoing development programs. China has been actively developing a range of hypersonic weapons since its first successful test in 2017, which the U.S. Defense Department warns could threaten areas including Hawaii and the contiguous U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has voiced concerns regarding China's substantial investments in military technologies, particularly hypersonic missiles.
When examining Iran's missile capabilities, experts contend that most countries face significant technical challenges when attempting to manufacture hypersonic missiles capable of withstanding the immense temperatures and stresses associated with such high speeds. According to Watling, Iran lacks the capacity to produce true hypersonic weapons. While some of the missiles Iran deploys exhibit hypersonic speeds, they are primarily non-maneuverable and do not meet the criteria for true hypersonic status. The Fattah 1, a missile launched by Iran, has reportedly had limited success, with Israeli authorities indicating that over 400 missiles have been fired, resulting in only about 40 instances of damage or casualties.
Israeli researcher Yehoshua Kalisky emphasizes that Israel's missile defense system can intercept more than 95% of incoming missiles because speed alone is not the critical factor; rather, it is the maneuverability of the missiles that determines interception success. Presently, Iran possesses a couple of fast and more maneuverable missiles, namely the Khorramshahr and Fattah 2, which are not yet deployed and would present a greater challenge in interception.
In terms of historical usage, Russia has claimed to have deployed hypersonic missiles during its ongoing conflict in Ukraine; however, experts argue that while these missiles may be fast, they do not possess the maneuverability characteristics that define true hypersonic weapons. Russian President Vladimir Putin has touted the Orenshik missile, claiming it can fly at speeds up to Mach 10, and insists that it is immune to established missile defense systems. Meanwhile, the Pentagon has classified the Oreshnik as an experimental intermediate-range ballistic missile.
Additionally, Russia's Kinzhal missile has been labeled hypersonic, yet Ukrainian defenses have successfully intercepted them using the U.S.-made Patriot missile defense system. In the recent skirmishes between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, reports emerged of Pakistan allegedly utilizing hypersonic missiles to target Indian defense systems. Other countries like Brazil, Australia, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Iran, Japan, South Korea, and North Korea are also developing hypersonic weapons, while the European Union is exploring countermeasures in response to emerging threats.
