THE HAGUE, Netherlands - NATO leaders are poised to reach an agreement this week that members should allocate 5% of their gross domestic product (GDP) to defense. However, this much-publicized investment commitment will not be uniformly applicable to all member states.
Spain has secured a deal with NATO to be excluded from the 5% GDP defense spending target. While U.S. President Donald Trump has asserted that this figure should not apply to the United States but rather to its allies, the exclusion raises concerns about what expectations can be enforced on other members like Belgium, Canada, France, and Italy, all of whom face challenges in increasing their military budgets significantly.
During the announcement of Spain's exemption on Sunday, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez indicated that the language in NATO's final summit communiqué—a brief document of approximately six paragraphs—will no longer stipulate "all allies." Trump's insistence comes amid claims that the U.S. has been shouldering the defense burdens of its allies for years, stating, "I don’t think we should, but I think they should." He specifically criticized Canada as a "low payer."
NATO's updated spending goals comprise two segments. Member states would agree to raise core defense spending to 3.5% of GDP, an increase from the current target, which mandates at least 2%. This core spending is complemented by 1.5% earmarked for enhancing infrastructure—such as roads, bridges, ports, and airfields—to better facilitate troop deployment, counter cyber threats, and prepare societies for future conflicts.
For most nations, including Spain, this second portion of spending will be relatively straightforward to fulfill, as it allows for various expenditures. Nevertheless, increasing core defense spending to 3.5% presents a formidable challenge. According to NATO estimates, Spain's military budget accounted for just 1.28% of its GDP last year, marking it as the lowest among NATO allies. Sánchez expressed confidence that Spain could honor its NATO commitments by reaching a defense spending level of 2.1% of GDP.
In terms of military contributions, Spain lags behind in providing arms and ammunition to Ukraine, having contributed approximately 800,000 euros ($920,000) in military aid since the onset of the Russian invasion in 2022. Beyond economic constraints, Sánchez faces internal challenges, relying on smaller parties to maintain governance amidst corruption scandals that have affected his administration and family. There is increasing pressure for him to call an early election.
Amid escalating tensions, there is substantial rationale for the proposed increase in defense spending. European nations perceive Russia's aggressive actions—especially the war in Ukraine—as an existential threat. Incidents of sabotage, cyberattacks, and GPS disruptions attributed to Moscow have heightened alarms across Europe, prompting leaders to prepare their populations for potential escalations.
NATO experts assert that safeguarding Europe and North America from Russian threats necessitates investments of at least 3%, a consensus among all 32 member nations. Each country has been allocated "capability targets" to contribute to collective defense efforts. Spanish Foreign Minister José Albares emphasized the conversation should focus on capabilities rather than mere percentages, indicating that Spain can meet NATO's standards with a defense budget of 2.1%.
Countries in closer proximity to Russian influence, such as Belarus and Ukraine, are committed to achieving the agreed-upon defense spending targets. Meanwhile, Germany, Norway, Sweden, and the Netherlands also prepare for the upcoming NATO summit. The Netherlands projects that implementing NATO’s defense strategies could demand a minimum of 3.5% allocation, which translates to an additional 16 billion to 19 billion euros ($18 billion to $22 billion).
Setting a timeline is critical. Many NATO nations have yet to meet the previous 2% spending target established in 2014 following Russia's annexation of Crimea. As such, a deadline—tentatively set for 2032—has been discussed for achieving the new target. While this is significantly shorter than past NATO objectives, analysts assess that Russian military capabilities could enable swift, aggressive action against NATO allies within five to ten years.
The U.S. asserts that any commitment must not be open-ended and contends that ten years is overly generous, while Italy is advocating for a decade-long timeline to meet the 5% target. Discussions may also consider extending this period to 2035, with an official review of progress anticipated in 2029.
