The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has issued a warning about a “heightened threat environment” in the wake of recent U.S. military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. The FBI's deputy director indicated that the bureau's resources are fully engaged in preventing any retaliatory violence, while local law enforcement agencies in major cities, including New York, are on high alert. Despite these concerns, no credible threats to the U.S. homeland have been publicly identified since the attacks.
The implications of a potential ceasefire announced by the U.S. between Israel and Iran remain uncertain regarding the immediate threat landscape. Analysts suggest that although the Iranian regime may resort to familiar tactics of targeted violence, such as murder-for-hire plots involving foreign operatives, its actual capacity to mount a significant attack is questionable.
Ilan Berman, a senior vice president at the American Foreign Policy Council, highlighted the complexity of Iran's operational structure, noting, “It’s not like there’s this one sleeper cell that’s connected directly to command central in Iran.” He emphasized that executing a successful attack could differ significantly from the ambition to try. Jon Alterman from the Center for Strategic and International Studies remarked that demonstrating resolve may be a major part of Iran's objective, regardless of its real capabilities.
In the wake of the strikes, DHS and FBI officials engaged in discussions with local law enforcement to assess the threat landscape. Furthermore, DHS issued a bulletin warning of an increased risk of violence against U.S. assets, spurred by calls from foreign terror organizations for violent actions against American personnel. Michael Masters, director of Secure Community Network, a Jewish security organization, noted that the volume of online material indicating potential threats is alarmingly high.
Recent disclosure from the Justice Department revealed an anti-Trump plot allegedly involving Iranian operatives. In November, authorities reported that Farhad Shakeri, an individual with links to Iran, had been tasked with surveilling and killing former President Donald Trump before the 2024 election. The plot, communicated to the FBI, was characterized by a belief in the regime’s desire for revenge following the death of Iranian General Qassim Soleimani in a U.S. strike in January 2020.
Another plot aimed at John Bolton, former national security adviser, involved a $300,000 offer for his assassination. The intended assassin, unaware he was engaging with an undercover FBI informant, faced criminal charges after the plot was uncovered.
The Iranian government's strategy has also targeted dissidents. Masih Alinejad, a prominent Iranian-American journalist and activist in New York, was the focus of a murder-for-hire scheme backed by Iranian officials. The assassination plot involved alleged crime bosses in the Russian mob and stemmed from Alinejad's activism against Iran's policies. Iranian intelligence had initially attempted to kidnap her before shifting to planning her assassination.
The long-standing threat posed by Iranian operatives was underscored by a 2011 plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the U.S., Adel Al-Jubeir, in Washington D.C. This operation similarly featured the use of intermediaries, as the person approached for the hit was mistakenly believed to be a member of a Mexican drug cartel but was actually an informant for the DEA.
