ORLANDO, Fla. - Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has publicly expressed his belief that the 2020 census numbers should be "fixed" to grant Florida another congressional seat. DeSantis attributes the alleged shortchanging of the state to the U.S. Census Bureau, claiming that Florida, now the third-most populous state in the nation, deserves more representation in the House of Representatives.
In 2020, Florida did gain one additional House seat, bringing its total to 28. However, during a news conference on August 20, DeSantis reflected on the previous census, stating, “This is something that has stuck in my craw for a number of years because I remember telling everybody that we were going to get two seats at the last census, and then when they came out with it, we only got one.” His comments highlight a persistent frustration regarding the census process and its implications for congressional representation.
DeSantis’ pursuit of an additional seat stems from concerns about how congressional seats are apportioned based on census data, which also influences the allocation of approximately $2.8 trillion in federal spending each year. His stance is notably different from the recent actions taken by other states, such as Texas and California, which have attempted to redraw their congressional districts to better suit their political interests. Additionally, DeSantis' arguments diverge from former President Donald Trump's proposals for conducting mid-decade censuses.
One key claim made by DeSantis is that “even the Biden administration acknowledged that Florida got shortchanged in the reapportionment stemming from the last census.” However, this assertion is misleading. The Biden administration did not explicitly state that Florida was shortchanged. Instead, DeSantis likely refers to the Census Bureau's post-enumeration survey (PES), which, in 2022, determined that Florida had an undercount of approximately 3.5%, equating to around 761,000 residents missed during the count. Notably, an analysis indicated that the Sunshine State required only about 171,500 more residents to qualify for an extra seat.
The PES also revealed similar undercounts in several states, such as Arkansas, Illinois, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Texas, while states like Delaware, Hawaii, and New York experienced overcounts. Understanding the demographics of those missed during the census, many of whom tend to be children, non-English speakers, racial and ethnic minorities, and individuals facing housing instability, is essential when evaluating the accuracy of census data.
In further remarks, DeSantis claimed, “I’m not a conspiracy theorist, but every state that shortchanged was a Republican state, and every state that got more was a Democratic state.” This claim, however, contradicts the facts; for instance, Illinois, which was undercounted, is governed by Democrats, whereas overcounts occurred in states like Ohio and Utah, where Republicans hold significant power.
Critics have pointed to various reasons for Florida's undercount, emphasizing the state's lack of resources allocated for census participation compared to other states. DeSantis initially dismissed calls to establish a committee dedicated to mobilizing census participation and only formed an unfunded committee shortly before the census began. In comparison, states like New York and California invested significantly more – $60 million and $187 million, respectively – to ensure comprehensive participation.
At the time of the census, about a quarter of Florida's population identified as Hispanic, a demographic that was notably impacted by the failed attempts of the Trump administration to introduce a citizenship question, which may have deterred participation among immigrants and minorities. Furthermore, the census was significantly disrupted by factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic, natural disasters, and social unrest.
DeSantis also contended that using PES undercount figures could justify Florida receiving at least one more congressional seat. While it may be mathematically accurate to say that the undercount could warrant an additional seat, the U.S. Constitution mandates an actual count rather than a sampled estimate for congressional apportionment. Legal experts, including Thomas Saenz, president of MALDEF, a Latino civil rights organization, affirmed that congressional seats cannot be reassigned based solely on non-enumerative data.
Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier, who previously served as DeSantis' chief of staff, acknowledged the concerns raised by the PES in a letter to the U.S. Commerce Department, advocating for a recount based on the insights gathered from the survey. However, the specifics of Uthmeier's suggestion regarding a "tailored and streamlined manual recount" remain vague, raising questions about potential next steps in addressing the census discrepancies.
