Iran has commenced rebuilding missile-production sites that were targeted by Israel during the 12-day war in June, according to satellite images analyzed by The Associated Press. However, a crucial element, the large mixers necessary for producing solid fuel for missiles, remains absent.
Reconstructing the missile program is a significant priority for the Islamic Republic as it anticipates the possibility of future conflicts with Israel. These missiles constitute one of Iran's few remaining military deterrents following the destruction of much of its air defense infrastructure during the recent hostilities. Tehran has repeatedly asserted that its missile capabilities will not be part of negotiations with Western powers.
Experts in missile technology indicate that acquiring the mixers is a priority for Tehran, particularly in light of looming United Nations sanctions expected to be reimposed later this month that will penalize any advancements in its missile program, among other measures. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is scheduled to address the United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday.
The mixers, known as planetary mixers, operate with revolving blades resembling orbiting planets and provide superior mixing efficiency compared to alternative equipment. Given Iran's previous procurement of missile fuel components from China, experts and U.S. officials suggest that Tehran could potentially source these mixers from Chinese manufacturers.
Sam Lair, a research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, stated, “If they’re able to reacquire some key components like planetary mixers, then that infrastructure is still there and ready to get rolling again.” Iran’s mission to the United Nations, however, did not respond to inquiries regarding its missile program rebuilding efforts.
The Israeli military specifically targeted solid-fuel missile sites during the conflict, as these missiles can be launched more swiftly than those that use liquid fuel, which must be filled just before launch. This rapid-fire capability is crucial for avoiding destruction on the launchpad, as demonstrated during the war.
Iran's solid-fuel missile production bases at Khojir and Parchin, located just outside Tehran, along with a facility at Shahroud, approximately 350 kilometers northeast of the capital, are known to have been hit in previous Israeli attacks, including one in October 2024. The airstrikes in June specifically aimed to damage the structures housing the essential mixers, as well as other facilities potentially usable for their manufacturing.
Recent satellite images from Planet Labs PBC indicate ongoing construction at both Parchin and Shahroud. Analysts have reported that mixing facilities at Parchin appear to be undergoing repairs, while similar rebuilding is evident at Shahroud.
The accelerated pace of repairs at these sites signifies Iran’s commitment to strengthening its missile program, showing a marked contrast to the slower activity observed at its bombed nuclear facilities. During the conflict, Iran launched 574 ballistic missiles at Israel, according to the Washington-based Jewish Institute for National Security of America. In earlier exchanges of fire before the war, another 330 missiles were also fired, which is significant considering the Israeli military estimated Iran's arsenal at around 2,500 missiles, indicating a substantial portion was deployed.
Prior to the war, Iranian capabilities were projected to allow for the production of over 200 solid-fuel missiles monthly. This potential prompted Israeli strikes on missile production sites, underscoring that Israel viewed the mixers as a bottleneck in Iran's missile manufacturing capacity. If Iran successfully overcomes its challenges in obtaining the mixers, analysts believe it could ramp up production significantly.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has reportedly supplied a planetary mixer to a ballistic missile facility in Syria, showcasing the expanding military collaboration between Iran and its allies. Moreover, Iranian officials have made high-profile visits to China, fostering discussions that may lead to further military technology acquisitions.
As the geopolitical landscape evolves, the dynamics between Iran, its missile program ambitions, and its partnerships with nations like China remain crucial in assessing future security risks in the region. The ongoing investments into missile technology signal enduring challenges for regional stability.
