LOS ANGELES (AP) – The midterm elections are approaching, but the battle for control of the U.S. House begins in California, where voters have opened the polls on a significant ballot measure that could reshape congressional districts throughout the state. This decision could potentially create as many as five additional Democrat-held seats in Congress, serving as a counterbalance to Republican efforts in states like Texas to gain seats ahead of the 2026 elections.
The outcome of this ballot measure, known simply as Proposition 50, poses a critical question for voters: "yes" or "no." The implications are profound, as the results could determine which party holds sway in the closely divided House and whether Democrats can further mitigate the influence of President Donald Trump on key issues ranging from immigration to reproductive rights. Roger Salazar, a Democratic consultant, characterized this moment as pivotal, stating, "2026 is the whole ball game."
The national significance of California's Proposition 50 is underscored by the influx of campaign funding and prominent endorsements from high-profile figures. Tens of millions of dollars have been invested in the fight—most notably, a $5 million contribution from the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC associated with House Speaker Mike Johnson. Opponents of the measure include former Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, while former President Barack Obama has publicly supported it, labeling the initiative as a "smart" strategy to address Republican maneuvers that threaten House control.
This election, which culminates on November 4, will also have ramifications for the forthcoming 2028 presidential contest, with California Governor Gavin Newsom emerging as a likely candidate. Newsom's fundraising messages underscore the gravity of the situation, expressing, "Heaven help us if we lose. This is an all-hands-on-deck moment for Democrats."
In a strategic maneuver, Democrats aim to counter Trump's efforts to secure additional Republican seats in Texas. The redistricting battle between California and Texas has gained national attention, as various states grapple with modifying House maps to sway partisan advantage. Some states, including Missouri, are already engaging in a similar redistricting process, further complicating the political landscape.
In Texas, federal judges are deliberating over the legality of a congressional map that ostensibly strengthens Republican representation. The possible outcomes of this legal battle remain uncertain, especially in light of Newsom's previous remarks suggesting that California may maintain its current districting map should other states halt their partisan redistricting efforts. However, such language is absent from the final Proposition 50 text.
The proposed new political map in California, if approved, could drastically reduce Republican representation in the House, potentially reducing their numbers to just four seats in a state where Democrats already hold a significant advantage. Currently, Democrats control 43 out of 52 congressional seats, and passage of this measure could increase that count to 48.
California presents a unique electoral environment, as it combines a Democratic majority with several competitive congressional districts. Governor Newsom is framing this election as a critical struggle for democracy against Trump's established political power, while opponents argue that the measure constitutes an overt power grab intended to solidify Democratic dominance while disregarding lines drawn by an independent commission.
Democrats hold a slim majority in the U.S. House at 219-213, with three vacancies. Traditionally, district boundaries are redrawn every decade post-census, with California utilizing an independent commission for this purpose. However, the proposal under Proposition 50 would overshadow that commission's work for the next decade.
The new district lines would create some unusual combinations, merging rural conservative areas in Northern California with liberal Marin County. As this redistricting looms, residents are expressing concerns about losing their political representation and voice in the process.
Democrats enter this election with considerable advantages, including a nearly 2-to-1 registration advantage over Republicans statewide. However, voter turnout in this election, which features no candidates on the ballot, remains uncertain. Campaigns are mobilizing efforts to boost awareness and engagement among voters, particularly in underrepresented communities.
Organizations are reaching out to infrequent voters, especially Latino communities, to mobilize them and ensure they understand the stakes of this election amidst national distractions. Kelsey Hinton from the Community Water Center Action Fund highlights the challenge, noting, "People don’t even know there is an election."
