LONDON (AP) — In a recent summit held in Egypt, President Donald Trump appeared prominently to celebrate a U.S.-brokered ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. Surrounding him were several world leaders, highlighting the diminished role of European nations in global diplomacy amid Trump's assertive foreign policy approach. European governments have found it increasingly challenging to assert influence during the ongoing Gaza conflict, while Trump's “America First” agenda simultaneously isolates them and asserts U.S. dominance in world affairs.
Closer to home, European leaders have experienced mixed outcomes in attempting to sway Trump regarding Russian President Vladimir Putin's actions in Ukraine, a war that has critical implications for Europe. Lindsay Newman, a geopolitical risk expert, expressed skepticism about Europe’s ability to influence Trump, noting that U.S. policy is largely dictated by the president. She emphasized that Trump's global ambitions contradict the perception that “America First” equates to isolationism.
Trump's approach to the Ukraine war has generated contention, as he has exhibited a desire to resolve the conflict even if it requires Ukraine to concede territory. Recent sanctions against Russia’s oil and gas industry were finally implemented after pressure from bipartisan entities in Washington, although some European leaders are frustrated by the U.S.'s mixed stance regarding their calls for a more muscular response to Russia.
In various interactions with Putin and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Trump displayed irritation over the lack of progress in negotiations. He has repeatedly called for more direct conversations, but his administration's stance has been perceived as advocating greater European responsibility in resolving the conflict. Despite some progress, European unity over Ukraine has been hindered by individual nations' differing perspectives, particularly with Hungary's opposition and Belgium's concerns regarding economic burden-sharing from potential Russian retaliation.
The situation in the Middle East presents an even more complex landscape for European influence. European nations have struggled to assert significant control over the Israel-Hamas war and are seen as ineffective in impacting negotiations or outcomes. Criticism over Israel's actions continues, but the recent ceasefire established by the U.S. has led to a temporary reduction in European discontent and the U.S. administration's firm support for Israel's actions.
Trump's administration has praised Middle Eastern nations like Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia while downplaying the role of European countries in securing the ceasefire. This approach appears indicative of Trump’s focus on building alliances in the Middle East rather than engaging with European counterparts. In light of the ongoing war in Ukraine and Russia's increasing aggressiveness, European countries have ramped up military spending, driven in part by the need to prepare against potential threats should Trump move to withdraw U.S. support from NATO.
Interestingly, the anticipated fears regarding Trump's second term have not entirely materialized. The former president has yet to withdraw U.S. troops from Europe or implement the potentially damaging trade tariffs he once suggested. In fact, the political landscape may be shifting, as the U.K., having exited the EU, is strengthening ties with its European neighbors under Prime Minister Keir Starmer's leadership, establishing himself as a vital link between Europe and Washington.
Kathleen Burk, an expert in modern history, noted that Trump's acknowledgment of the importance of alliances might lead to potential opportunities for Europe to regain some level of influence in future diplomatic negotiations. While unity among European nations remains essential, their collective ability to navigate conversations with Trump's administration will likely determine the future of their geopolitical standing.
