NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) - Tanzania's ruling party, Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM), has maintained power for 64 years, often facing little significant opposition. This trend appears likely to continue as Tanzanians prepare to vote on Wednesday, in an election that is expected to result in a victory for President Samia Suluhu Hassan. Hassan, who became the country's first female president in 2021 following the death of her predecessor, has faced criticism for deepening authoritarian practices in the nation.
Despite being a multiparty democracy, Tanzania has been dominated by the CCM since its independence from Britain in 1961. The country's context is striking as it contrasts with the regional trend in which liberation parties are losing support amidst the rise of youthful opposition groups. Tanzania, with an annual per capita income of approximately $1,200, has seen authorities suppress opposition leaders, civic organizations, and journalists. Amnesty International described the current climate as one of fear ahead of the elections, which will determine the president, lawmakers, and local leaders.
Despite initial expectations that Hassan would distance herself from the authoritarian policies of former President John Pombe Magufuli, she has maintained a significant grip on power. Many voters express disappointment over the increasing repression under her leadership. Critics have noted that allowed opposition parties appear to endorse Hassan and have largely refrained from campaigning, leading to concerns over the legitimacy of the election process.
As the election approaches, voters will choose between Hassan and 16 other candidates, though the leading opposition figures, Tundu Lissu from Chadema and Luhaga Mpina from ACT-Wazalendo, are barred from running. Lissu, a dynamic opposition leader, is currently imprisoned on treason charges, which he claims are politically motivated. Meanwhile, police have detained John Heche, Chadema's deputy leader, during Lissu's trial.
Through her campaign, Hassan promotes themes of stability and prosperity, particularly for agricultural workers, emphasizing “work and dignity” as pathways for the country’s advancement. Although her party remains popular in some regions, its overall electoral support appears to be waning as opposition voices grow louder.
As the election unfolds, low voter turnout is anticipated, reflective of declining engagement since 2010 and the prevailing belief that a CCM victory is inevitable. Nicodemus Minde, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, warns that this could further entrench authoritarian practices in Tanzania, undermining prospects for democratic governance.
The opposition, primarily Chadema, has called for protests on election day, arguing that reforms are needed to ensure a free and fair election. Voters interviewed by The Associated Press expressed fears regarding potential violence related to the elections, particularly as authorities have threatened to respond firmly to any demonstrations. Reports of arbitrary arrests and intimidation tactics have left many citizens feeling demoralized and uncertain about their political rights.
Young voters, such as Joshua Gerald in Dar es Salaam, have highlighted the necessity for a peaceful electoral process, as disruptions could inhibit citizens from exercising their democratic rights. Another young voter, Noel Johnson, emphasized the need for the government to safeguard constitutional rights, particularly the right to protest against perceived electoral injustices.
Despite Hassan’s calls for peaceful participation, concerns about unrest linger. Political scientist Richard Mbunda from the University of Dar es Salaam notes that existing public dissatisfaction could trigger instability. He cautions that even in a country perceived as stable, neglecting public sentiments can lead to turmoil, stating that genuine dialogue and reconciliation are vital in the lead-up to the election.
