WASHINGTON — Prime Minister Mark Carney is poised to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Friday in Washington, amid concerns over the future of the continental trade agreement. This meeting marks a significant event as it will be the first occasion all three leaders gather in person, coinciding with the 2026 World Cup draw.
The context of their meeting is particularly crucial, as it precedes a mandatory review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement on trade, commonly referred to as CUSMA, which is set for next year. This trade pact was established to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) during Trump's first term, which he hailed as the "best deal ever." However, recent remarks indicate that Trump's stance on CUSMA has shifted.
On the eve of the meeting, Trump stated that the trade agreement is set to expire next year, adding, “We’ll either let it expire or we’ll maybe work out another deal with Mexico and Canada,” which has raised alarms regarding the future of trade relations between the three countries. Tensions have escalated since Trump introduced sweeping tariffs, although Canada and Mexico have benefited from some protective measures concerning CUSMA-compliant goods.
Earlier this year, trade discussions between Canada and the U.S. stalled after Trump expressed displeasure over an Ontario-sponsored ad that quoted former President Ronald Reagan criticizing tariffs. In light of these developments, Carney’s brief meeting with Trump will take place at the Kennedy Center, where the World Cup event is being hosted. Meanwhile, Sheinbaum is yet to decide on a private meeting with Trump, although a bilateral meeting between the Prime Minister and the Mexican President is confirmed for Friday.
As the three nations prepare to co-host the 2026 World Cup, the ongoing CUSMA negotiations loom large over the festivities. The dynamics between Canada and Mexico vary under the Trump administration; Carney's previous interactions with Trump have been cordial, in contrast to Sheinbaum, who will have her first in-person engagement with the President on this occasion.
In August, Trump raised duties on Canadian imports to 35 percent while extending extensions on tariffs for Mexico, which faced a 25 percent rate. Additionally, both countries are feeling the impact of separate tariffs imposed by Trump on steel, aluminum, automobiles, lumber, and copper. In this turbulent environment, Canada and Mexico are exploring avenues to alleviate tariffs while advocating for duty-free continental trade amidst Trump’s threats to withdraw the U.S. from CUSMA.
The formal review of CUSMA is set to begin in July, offering a trio of options to the involved nations: renew the agreement for an additional 16 years, withdraw from it, or indicate non-renewal while keeping negotiations active. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer recently reiterated that the U.S. could potentially step away from CUSMA, proposing separate negotiations with Canada and Mexico instead.
This week, Greer’s office is conducting public hearings in Washington regarding the future of the trade agreement. At these hearings, representatives from Canadian industries emphasized the significance of CUSMA and voiced appeals for a timely review. Goldy Hyder, President and CEO of the Business Council of Canada, highlighted that "the livelihoods of American, Mexican, and Canadian workers and their families depend on the continued, certain, and predictable operation of CUSMA."
As this critical meeting unfolds, it is evident that the future of North America's trade framework is at a pivotal juncture, with significant implications for all three countries moving forward.
