LONDON (AP) – Residents in the Gorton and Denton constituency of Greater Manchester are participating in a pivotal special parliamentary election that could significantly impact Prime Minister Keir Starmer's political future. This by-election is particularly critical for Starmer’s center-left Labour Party, which has experienced a decline in popularity since gaining power in July 2024.
The election features a competitive three-way race among Labour's local councilor Angeliki Stogia, Matthew Goodwin of the hard-right Reform UK party, and Hannah Spencer, a plumber representing the Green Party. Historically, this area has consistently elected Labour representatives for nearly the entirety of the last century; however, recent trends indicate a potential shift towards Reform UK.
Current polling data and betting markets suggest a highly competitive race. The Reform UK party, led by veteran politician Nigel Farage, currently holds only eight out of 650 seats in the House of Commons while Labour boasts 404 seats. Despite this, Reform UK has dominated national opinion polls for several months, surpassing both Labour and the main opposition Conservative Party.
The Green Party has only four seats in Parliament, but under the leadership of Zack Polanski, the party has broadened its platform to address issues beyond environmental concerns, including support for the Palestinian cause and the legalization of drugs.
Both Labour and the Greens are positioning themselves as the party most capable of preventing a Reform UK victory. Hancock told reporters, “Voting Green is the only way to ensure Reform don’t win," while Starmer emphasized the stark choice facing voters: “unity or division.” Farage, in response, urged voters to “vote Reform to ditch Starmer.”
The by-election was necessitated by the resignation of the former Labour lawmaker in a constituency that features a diverse demographic. Traditionally strong Labour areas now show a leaning towards Reform, alongside significant populations of university students and Muslim residents who are increasingly disillusioned with Labour’s centrist approach under Starmer. The government has faced criticism for its perceived slow response regarding Israel's actions in Gaza, creating a fertile landscape for Green Party support.
Voting will close at 10 p.m. (2200 GMT), with results expected to be announced early Friday. Starmer has encountered numerous challenges since leading Labour to a sweeping electoral victory in July 2024. Promises of economic growth, improved public services, and a return to transparent governance have faltered, particularly following controversies surrounding welfare cuts and other unpopular policies.
Although the next national election is not required until 2029, Starmer faces significant pressure from within his party, with some members considering a leadership change should he falter in Gorton and Denton. A win in this constituency could bolster Starmer's position and provide a reprieve from party critics amid rising internal dissent related to recent controversies involving figures like Peter Mandelson, whom Starmer appointed as the UK ambassador to Washington.
A defeat, on the other hand, would signify the profound unpopularity plaguing the Labour Party and the challenges posed from both the left and right flanks.
