According to new Gallup polling, American sympathies in the Middle East have seen a significant shift towards the Palestinians, reversing decades of strong support for Israel. This change has accelerated during the ongoing conflict in Gaza, indicating a notable realignment in public opinion. Three years prior, 54% of Americans expressed more sympathy for Israelis, while 31% sided with Palestinians. Currently, the numbers are nearly equal, with 41% of Americans sympathizing more with Palestinians compared to 36% for Israelis.
The Gallup data, which includes a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, illustrates a deepening divide on the issue of U.S. support for Israel and its implications for domestic politics and foreign policy. Significantly, the shift in sentiment appears to be primarily driven by Democrats, with about two-thirds now sympathizing more with Palestinians. In contrast, only about 20% of Democrats express more support for Israelis. This contrasts sharply with data from 2016, when approximately half of Democrats sympathized with Israelis and around one-quarter with Palestinians.
This sentiment shift began even before the recent outbreak of violence, which began with the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. This attack resulted in approximately 1,200 deaths, predominantly among civilians, and 251 hostages taken. However, the Israeli military response has been criticized as disproportionate, with Gaza health officials reporting over 72,000 Palestinian fatalities, almost half of whom were women and children. This has led to accusations of genocide against Israel from various progressive politicians and activists, a claim the Israeli government firmly denies.
Gallup's earlier polling from 2023 indicated shifting sympathies among Democrats and was recorded before the October attacks, showing a gradual tilt towards Palestinian support since around 2017. The decline in support for Israel has seemingly correlated with disapproval of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose approval ratings in the U.S. dropped nearly 15 percentage points between 2017 and 2024, according to prior Gallup surveys.
The conflict has become a point of contention within the Democratic Party during President Joe Biden's administration and is influencing the dynamics of the 2024 presidential election. An AP-NORC poll at the end of 2023 suggested that Democrats are increasingly divided on the level of support the U.S. should extend to Israel, with some indicating that the Israeli government bears considerable responsibility for the war's escalation.
The ongoing war has intensified support for Palestinians among Democrats and influenced independent voters, with recent polling showing that for the first time, independents express more sympathy for Palestinians than Israelis. Approximately 40% of independents now lean toward the Palestinians, compared to only 30% for Israelis. While a majority of Republicans still favor Israel, this support has dipped slightly from about 80% pre-war to approximately 70% currently, with some questioning the traditional U.S. alliance with Israel.
Younger Americans, particularly those aged 18 to 34, have increasingly aligned their sympathies with Palestinians, reflecting a broader trend that began around 2020. Currently, about half of this age group express more sympathy for Palestinians, while only a quarter sympathize with Israelis. Student protests reflecting this sentiment have emerged on college campuses, with calls for divestment from entities supporting Israel.
Interestingly, the shift in public opinion is not solely a generational issue. For the first time, middle-aged Americans (ages 35 to 54) have expressed more sympathy for Palestinians than Israelis, reversing last year's trend, while older Americans (over 55) maintain a pro-Israel stance, albeit with a narrowing gap.
In terms of support for a two-state solution, around 57% of U.S. adults favor establishing an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, a sentiment that has remained stable over recent years. Notably, among Democrats, support for this solution has grown, with approximately three-quarters in favor, while only one-third of Republicans share this view. However, there remains a disconnect between American public opinion and the views of those directly impacted by the conflict; only about 30% of Israelis and Palestinians living in the region support a two-state solution.
Overall, as American perspectives toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict evolve, there are clear signs of growing diverse opinions that reflect a changing political landscape, particularly among Democrats and younger Americans.
