SAO PAULO (AP) — U.S. President Donald Trump has prominently aligned himself with former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, indicating a shift in U.S. priorities in Latin America. This realignment has, however, strained longstanding diplomatic ties, particularly as Trump has enacted 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods that began to take effect in early August 2025. Such measures have brought U.S.-Brazil relations to their lowest point in decades.
The situation has been exacerbated by the U.S. government's adoption of narratives propagated by Bolsonaro's allies, alleging that his prosecution for attempting to overturn his 2022 election loss represents a “deliberate breakdown in the rule of law.” This perspective views the Brazilian government as engaging in “politically motivated intimidation” and committing “human rights abuses,” sentiments echoed in Trump’s official statements regarding the tariffs.
President Trump characterized the Supreme Court's prosecution of Bolsonaro as a “witch hunt,” a term he has frequently used to describe investigations targeting himself. Bolsonaro faces serious charges related to a coup attempt aimed at retaining power after losing the 2022 election to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. A ruling on his case is imminent, expected within the coming months.
Political scientist Steven Levitsky from Harvard University remarked on the unprecedented nature of Trump’s actions, highlighting a shift toward personalistic governance that operates on Trump’s whims. The ongoing support for Bolsonaro is further anchored by his family’s close ties to Trump’s inner circle, with Bolsonaro’s sons actively reinforcing the connection between Brazil’s right-wing factions and Trump's MAGA movement.
Following Bolsonaro’s electoral defeat, Trump and his allies embraced populist claims of election fraud and celebrated Bolsonaro as a conservative icon. Their mutual support has escalated to the point where figures such as Steve Bannon have suggested that a cessation of Bolsonaro's legal troubles could lead to a reassessment of the tariffs imposed.
Despite political pressure from the U.S., Brazilian officials reiterate the independence of their judiciary, affirming that legal proceedings against Bolsonaro will not be swayed by external influences. Following the court's recent decision to place Bolsonaro under house arrest, Justice Alexandre de Moraes, responsible for overseeing the trial, has publicly affirmed his commitment to upholding the due process, despite U.S. sanctions against him.
Insights from Bruna Santos of the Inter-American Dialogue suggest that calls to drop charges against Bolsonaro are unrealistic and that the resulting diplomatic scars could damage longstanding relations between the U.S. and Brazil, the two largest democracies in the hemisphere.
Analysts point to several factors contributing to the deteriorating U.S.-Brazil relationship, including an increasing alignment of far-right ideologies, Brazil's steadfastness against tariff threats, and a noticeable lack of effective lobbying efforts within Washington. Bolsonaro's son, Eduardo Bolsonaro, has emerged as a key figure in linking Brazil’s far-right with Trump's platform, actively promoting the narrative of judicial crackdowns within Brazil.
As diplomatic tensions heighten, Brazilian negotiators have made overtures to the U.S. in hopes of mitigating the economic fallout from the tariffs. After discussions and negotiations concluded without a direct conversation between Presidents Lula and Trump, a Brazilian delegation sought to present economic rationales for amending the imposed tariffs to U.S. lawmakers.
Ultimately, while specific exemptions from tariffs may provide some relief for Brazil, observers warn that the ideological narratives shaping the discourse between the U.S. and Brazil could have lasting implications for bilateral relations and the political landscape in both nations, particularly as Eduardo Bolsonaro continues to work closely with figures in Trump's inner circle.
