A recent survey indicates a significant shift in national voter intention in Canada, marking the first instance since the last election where the Conservative Party has overtaken the Liberal Party. According to the latest data released by Abacus Data, if an election were to be held today, 41 percent of decided voters would opt for the Conservatives, representing a one percentage point increase. In contrast, support for the Liberal Party has seen a notable decline of four points, decreasing to 39 percent since the beginning of the month.
This poll was conducted shortly after Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre's victory in an Alberta byelection. However, it is essential to note that this victory is likely not reflected in the survey results due to its timing within the polling period.
Favourability ratings remain relatively stable, with Prime Minister Mark Carney holding a rating of +18, which has not changed significantly since the election. Conversely, Poilievre's favourability remains low at -2, highlighting a notable contrast between the two party leaders.
The movement in voter intention appears closely associated with changing public concerns. A staggering 60 percent of Canadians now identify the rising cost of living as their primary concern, overshadowing previous political issues. Although U.S. President Donald Trump and his tariff threats remain a significant worry for 38 percent of Canadians, they are closely followed by concerns surrounding the broader economy (36 percent), housing affordability (35 percent), and healthcare (33 percent). In these areas, the Conservative Party is viewed more favorably than the Liberals.
Interestingly, while Trump's impact as a political issue in Canada appears to be waning, a majority of 56 percent of respondents still prefer the Liberals when it comes to managing relations with the unpredictable American leader. This reflects a nuanced view of international political dynamics and its influence on domestic voter preferences.
David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, provided insight into the situation, asserting that the Carney government continues to maintain a solid approval rating. He emphasized that Prime Minister Carney is personally well-liked and that the Liberal brand remains broadly appealing. However, Coletto cautioned that the ongoing 'cost of living crunch' and persistent frustrations regarding housing might be beginning to test that goodwill among voters.
The poll, conducted between August 15 and August 19, involved a random sample of 1,915 Canadians. It holds a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percent, ensuring a reliable reflection of public opinion.
