OTTAWA – Canada is now at a critical juncture regarding its greenhouse gas emissions targets. According to a new report by the Canadian Climate Institute, the nation has failed to achieve the short-term emission reduction goals it set, with emission levels remaining stagnant in 2023 and projected to total 694 million tonnes in 2024. This level of emissions is described as equivalent to the output of 146 million gas-powered cars over a year.
The Canadian Climate Institute's analysis indicates that efforts to decrease emissions in areas such as electricity production and heavy industry have been undermined by rising emissions in the oil and gas sector. Despite Canada’s commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 40 to 45 percent below 2005 levels by the year 2030, the current emissions are only about 8.5 percent lower compared to 2005 figures.
In order to meet its emissions targets, Canada would need to cut emissions by an estimated 40 million tonnes annually. The climate institute asserts that this goal is unattainable given the current trends. Dave Sawyer, principal economist with the Canadian Climate Institute, emphasized the daunting challenge of effectuating the required scale of emission reductions in such a short timeframe. He pointed out that ongoing increases in emissions, particularly from the oil and gas sector, impede progress.
The startling revelation about Canada’s projected failure to meet its 2030 targets aligns with warnings issued by Environment Commissioner Jerry DeMarco a year prior, where he forewarned that Canada was unlikely to meet these targets and indicated that substantial emission reduction efforts would be necessary over the next two to three decades to make up for lost ground.
Current research from the institute highlights that Canada appears only poised to achieve a reduction of 20 to 25 percent from 2005 levels, a stark shortfall from the established targets. In this context, the report describes Canada’s progress in lowering emissions as “fragile,” suggesting a concerning trend where momentum is shifting negatively.
Furthermore, Sawyer expressed that many sectors are either stagnating or showing only marginal declines, while emissions from the oilsands sector continue to rise. Oil and gas emissions reportedly increased by 1.9 percent in 2024, contributing to nearly one-third of Canada’s total emissions. Meanwhile, emissions from transportation remained flat, comprising 23 percent of the national total, with other sectors such as buildings, heavy industry, and electricity witnessing decreases.
Additionally, the slowdown in momentum towards emission reductions is largely attributed to recent shifts in federal and provincial policies that prioritize economic growth over strict climate policies. Notable policy changes include Prime Minister Mark Carney repealing the consumer carbon price and pausing electric vehicle mandates, alongside Saskatchewan’s decision to extend the operation of coal plants and Alberta’s maintenance of a frozen industrial carbon price until 2026.
These policy developments have significant implications for Canada’s future emission reduction capabilities, potentially leading to escalated emissions rather than the desired reductions. Although Prime Minister Carney and his cabinet have refrained from affirming Canada’s commitment to its 2030 and 2035 targets in recent weeks, the government maintains that it is still focused on achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. Carney has signaled intentions to make Canada “climate competitive” and promises a forthcoming climate strategy.
This report underscores the urgency and complexity of Canada's climate action efforts and the daunting road ahead in the pursuit of significant emission reductions.
