DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — A critical deadline approaches for Iran as a 30-day window to avert the reimposition of United Nations sanctions draws to a close. The renewed sanctions could inflict further strain on Tehran’s struggling economy, particularly against a backdrop of escalating tensions in the Middle East amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict in the Gaza Strip.
This week, as the U.N. General Assembly convenes in New York, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are poised to make one final attempt to prevent sanctions. The urgency of their negotiation stems from an announcement made on August 28, when France, Germany, and the United Kingdom declared that Iran was not complying with the stipulations of its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.
Tehran contends that the nuclear agreement became void following the United States' unilateral withdrawal from the deal in 2018 during President Donald Trump’s administration. Since the U.S. exit, Iran has notably restricted inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), particularly after a conflict on June 12, which saw both the U.S. and Israel conduct airstrikes on significant Iranian nuclear sites.
The mechanism referred to as “snapback” was established within Iran’s 2015 nuclear agreement, allowing for the immediate reinstatement of sanctions should compliance not be met. This process is designed to be impervious to vetoes at the U.N. Security Council and would take effect 30 days after a non-compliance notification is issued. If invoked, it would freeze Iranian assets abroad, halt arms deals, and impose various penalties related to Iran’s ballistic missile program. However, the authority to enact “snapback” will expire on October 18, which likely prompted European nations to act swiftly.
Following this deadline, any sanctions proposal would confront potential vetoes from China and Russia, both of which have historically provided support to Iran. China remains a significant purchaser of Iranian crude oil, a relationship that would be impacted by the reinstatement of sanctions. Furthermore, Russia has relied on Iranian drones amid its ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
The West’s unease with Iran’s nuclear ambitions primarily stems from Tehran’s insistence on the peaceful nature of its nuclear program, juxtaposed with rising threats to pursue nuclear weapons. Iranian officials now enrich uranium to near-weapons-grade levels, a move that distinguishes Iran as the only country lacking a nuclear weapons program yet capable of such enrichment.
Under the established guidelines of the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran was permitted to enrich uranium to 3.67% purity and maintain a uranium stockpile capped at 300 kilograms (661 pounds). However, the IAEA reported that Iran’s uranium stockpile had escalated to 9,874.9 kilograms (21,770.4 pounds) before the recent conflict, with 440.9 kilograms (972 pounds) enriched to 60%. This capability positions Iran to potentially fabricate several nuclear weapons if it decides to pursue that path, despite U.S. intelligence assessments indicating Iran has yet to initiate a formal weapons program.
With regards to Iran's nuclear infrastructure, the Natanz facility, located 220 kilometers (135 miles) southeast of Tehran, is a primary enrichment site that has been targeted by multiple airstrikes, including a coordinated U.S. attack in June. Prior to the conflict, uranium had been enriched to 60% purity at this site, which is considered a mere step away from weapons-grade material. Furthermore, strikes by both the U.S. and Israel have aimed at crippling Iran's nuclear capabilities through attacks on its underground facilities and associated infrastructure.
Historically, U.S.-Iran relations have been fraught with tension, starting from the era when Iran was a U.S. ally under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. The relationship soured with the Islamic Revolution of 1979, leading to the U.S. Embassy hostage crisis and subsequent decades of adversarial interactions. The 2015 nuclear agreement represented a brief thaw in relations, which crumbled following Trump's withdrawal from the accord in 2018, reigniting hostilities exacerbated by ongoing regional conflicts.
