Ethiopia's Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, is known for ambitious infrastructural projects, including the recently inaugurated Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile. This mega-dam, completed in July 2023, is viewed as a transformational project for Ethiopia, which is Africa's second-most populous nation and has historically depended on foreign aid. Abiy announced plans to develop Africa's largest airport and a nuclear power plant, with a vision of leading Ethiopia towards economic independence and growth.
Despite these advancements, Ethiopia faces significant challenges that threaten its economy, which has been among the fastest-growing on the African continent. One major concern is the country's landlocked status following Eritrea's secession in 1993. Abiy's administration is keen on regaining access to the Red Sea, which complicates relations with Eritrea, especially amidst recent accusations between the two nations. In June, Eritrea accused Ethiopia of harboring a war agenda aimed at seizing its coastal ports, while Ethiopia has responded by claiming Eritrea is preparing for conflict.
The peace that existed between Eritrea and Ethiopia after a brief war in Tigray has now floundered, and tensions are escalating once again. Analysts, like Magus Taylor from the International Crisis Group, warn of potential miscalculations leading to renewed conflict, raising concerns over regional stability.
Relations with Egypt are equally tense, primarily due to the Nile River's significance for Egypt's freshwater supply. Egypt strongly opposes the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, fearing it will jeopardize its water access. Following the dam's inauguration, Egypt has increased its aggressive rhetoric and has suggested it will take necessary actions to defend its interests against perceived Ethiopian aggression. While Ethiopia insists the dam is essential for its development and poverty alleviation efforts, Cairo has sought to strengthen alliances with Ethiopia's neighboring nations, such as Eritrea and Somalia, amidst this conflict.
Internally, Ethiopia is grappling with ethnic conflicts that threaten its internal security. Although the Tigray conflict reached a ceasefire in late 2022, the dominance of armed groups like the Fano in Amhara and the Oromo Liberation Army in Oromia reflects ongoing instability. Reports of violence, including massacres and rampant kidnappings, paint a dire picture of the situation, while humanitarian efforts are severely hindered.
Notably, the economic growth seen in Addis Ababa contrasts sharply with escalating poverty levels in the rural regions. Abiy has initiated major urban development projects, including bike lanes, parks, and a stock exchange, which he hopes will position the capital as a tourist hub. Nonetheless, about 43% of Ethiopians currently live below the poverty line, a significant increase from 33% in 2016, driven by rising costs and increased defense expenditure. In fact, the disparity between the capital's prosperity and the struggles of the peripheral regions highlights a growing sense of injustice and discontent among the population.
Overall, while Ethiopia makes strides toward infrastructural advancements and economic reforms, internal and external pressures threaten to undermine these efforts. As tensions rise both regionally and within Ethiopia, the ability of Abiy's government to maintain stability and address rising inequality remains uncertain.
