LOS ANGELES (AP) – For years, Democrats have dominated California politics, but as they approach a critical statewide election, they face significant challenges that threaten their stronghold. The race for governor is becoming increasingly chaotic, with barely a month left until mail-in voting begins.
Democratic leaders are expressing anxiety over the potential loss of a statewide election for the first time in two decades. As candidates vie for position in a crowded field, the focus has shifted away from pressing voter concerns like rising gas prices and grocery costs to internal disputes over debate eligibility and issues like identity politics.
Kim Nalder, director of the Project for an Informed Electorate at California State University, Sacramento, remarked that “squabbles about debates or other inside baseball politics are likely under the radar for most voters and seem almost absurd.” This sentiment underscores the disconnect between candidate conflicts and the prevailing issues affecting the electorate.
With over 50 candidates on the ballot—including eight established Democrats and two leading Republicans—the election is characterized by uncertainty. This marks a notable departure from previous elections, such as those of former Governor Jerry Brown and outgoing Governor Gavin Newsom, who anticipated easy wins.
Veteran Democratic consultant Dan Newman acknowledged the unpredictability of the current race, stating, “I have no idea and anybody who tells you they do, they don’t know either.” The Democratic candidates face a unique challenge due to California's “top two” primary system, which allows the top two vote-getters, irrespective of party affiliation, to advance to the November election. Democrats fear that with 24 candidates on the ballot, they may split their own votes, thereby opening the door for leading Republicans like Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and conservative commentator Steve Hilton.
While affordability remains a critical issue nationwide, the governor's race has devolved into personal attacks and disputes that obscure key issues. A major televised debate was recently canceled after allegations surfaced regarding discrimination in candidate selection, which led to a controversy that overshadowed voter concerns.
The University of Southern California, which was to host the canceled debate, acknowledged that the situation “created a significant distraction from the issues that matter to voters.” Just prior to this, state Democratic Chair Rusty Hicks urged weaker candidates to withdraw from the race, hoping to consolidate support for stronger contenders. Meanwhile, Rep. Eric Swalwell has accused Donald Trump of meddling in the election after it was reported that officials ordered FBI agents to investigate Swalwell’s past connections to a suspected Chinese spy, despite the investigation not leading to any charges.
In an unexpected twist, Sheriff Bianco seized over half a million ballots for the upcoming 2025 election, indicating a pause in an investigation into alleged election fraud amidst mounting legal challenges. This highlights the contentious and tumultuous atmosphere surrounding the electoral process.
Nationally, Democrats have celebrated recent electoral victories, even on traditionally Republican turf, giving them hope ahead of the crucial midterm elections. However, there are fears that an unsettled gubernatorial race could weaken turnout for Democratic candidates in important U.S. House contests. Hicks has warned that a lack of strong leadership at the top could endanger the party’s chances to regain control of the House.
The fight to succeed Newsom is complicated by persistent challenges facing California, including a severe homelessness crisis, steep housing costs, and high taxes. Polling from early February by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California indicated that the race has split into two main factions, with Bianco and Hilton alongside Democrats Swalwell, former Rep. Katie Porter, and billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer in a tight contest.
The unpredictability of this race has drawn comparisons to the surprising outcome of the 1998 gubernatorial race, where underdog Gray Davis triumphed over two leading Democrats who attacked each other relentlessly. With the dynamics of campaigning evolving in the digital age, candidates are grappling to retain voter engagement amid the noise of distracting platforms.
“Normally people would be paying attention,” Newman noted. “The whole campaign has been in slow motion.”
