NEW YORK (AP) — The traditional appeal of Black Friday has shifted away from the once-popular midnights runs to stores, but it remains the busiest shopping day of the year in the United States. This annual sales event signifies the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season, attracting a significant number of shoppers into stores.
This year's Black Friday kickoff coincided with a decline in consumer confidence, attributed to the recent federal government shutdown, weak hiring, and persistent inflation, as reported by The Conference Board on Tuesday.
Retail executives have noted a changing dynamic, with customers becoming more selective and focused on obtaining deals. Despite this, shoppers still show a willingness to spend on significant occasions such as the beginning of the school year and the winter holidays, which suggests a "halo effect" in their spending behavior. Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, remarked on the mixed consumer sentiments leading up to Black Friday, indicating that while shoppers express negative views about the economy, their spending may not reflect this pessimism.
At Macy's Herald Square flagship in New York City, shoppers streamed in shortly after the store opened at 6 a.m., eager to find substantial discounts on a variety of products, including clothing, shoes, linens, and cosmetics. Footwear proved particularly popular, with discounts ranging from 40% to 50%. The atmosphere, however, felt more subdued compared to previous years, where frenzied competition for deals often characterized the day. Veronica Nam, a 68-year-old shopper, purchased Nike sneakers and Lacoste bedding after noticing significant markdowns. She expressed her belief that Black Friday offers the best deals but indicated her intention to finish her holiday shopping after Christmas.
Nicholas Menasche, a 19-year-old from Queens, was shopping at Macy's with his mother, planning to visit Best Buy next for video games. Menasche estimated he would spend around $1,200 on holiday shopping this year, consistent with his expenditures from the previous year. He characterized the Black Friday tradition positively, appreciating the early store hours.
In the lead-up to the holiday season, retailers grappled with the implications of the Trump administration's unpredictable tariff policies, which compelled many to adjust their strategies, such as accelerating shipments before tariffs were enacted or absorbing costs rather than passing them on to consumers. Market research firm Circana found that around 40% of general merchandise sold in September had seen a price increase of at least 5% compared to the first half of the year. Categories like toys, baby products, housewares, and sports equipment were among the most affected. In particular, 83% of toys sold in September experienced price hikes, largely due to high tariffs imposed on imports from China, where about 80% of toys sold in the U.S. are manufactured.
Despite these challenges, analysts and mall executives reported encouraging trends as Black Friday approached. Jill Renslow, the chief business development and marketing officer at the Mall of America in Bloomington, Minnesota, noted that foot traffic in recent weeks had surpassed pre-pandemic levels from 2019. “We’re seeing a very positive start to the holiday season,” Renslow stated, citing strong performances over the Saturdays in November.
Online sales have also experienced significant growth, with consumers spending $79.7 billion from November 1 to November 23, marking a 7.5% increase from the previous year and exceeding Adobe Analytics' forecast of 5.3% growth for the season. Mastercard SpendingPulse anticipates a 3.6% increase in holiday sales from November 1 through December 24, slightly lower than the 4.1% growth observed last year. According to Mastercard Chief Economist Michelle Meyer, while consumer sentiment remains uncertain, it does not seem to affect their shopping behavior significantly this season.
